Russian special military operation in Ukraine #45

Backman wrote:The easiest would be to just destroy the ports. And not hey mines and subs involved 

https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1678091005768130564?t=NrNaL_yEtPLYI2duXHFQiw&s=19

If Russia mines the ports no ships will sail as they will be non-insurable and it would be a conflict zone. I don't think the grain can move without Russias agreement. Not sure why Erdogan would release these scum when when he wants something from Putin. Maybe something happened in Syria or Libya that Erdogan is not happy about.

Turkey and now China…unfortunately as of now, neither of these countries can really be trusted…Iran right now is the closest “friend” Russia has. Putin needs to wise up…

PapaDragon wrote:

mnztr wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Turkey can patrol all they want. But there won't be much to patrol if the Odessa ports are destroyed or the vessels.

There is no need to destroy the port. Russia can close it with mines and submarines quite easily. What they DO need to do is close the Western border. and destroy bridges all along there

Why waste time and money on it?

Just sink one grain ship as it's being escorted by Turks and dozen problems get solved instantaneously

But Russians are too much of a pussies to do something intelligent, they will just whine and stomp their feet pathetically instead while Ukrs keep exporting grain without a care in the world, same as always

Because attacking a Turkish convoy has other issues, like for instance, they control entrance to the black sea.

PapaDragon wrote:

But Russians are too much of a pussies to do something intelligent, they will just whine and stomp their feet pathetically instead while Ukrs keep exporting grain without a care in the world, same as always

Last time on same case they said will resume the deal without Russia but Russia destroyed AFAIK a pulling ship used to pull the grain ships .

Turkey policy is to go to the brinkmanship but once you reach with them there they will pull back , they tried it with Egypt in Libya and once Egypt shows readiness to send the army , the Turks pulled back .

They tried it also with Trump over the case of pastor Andrew Brunson then again they pulled back , also with Saudis .

Increasingly wondering, what is out there that makes some of you more and more warmonger
Is it something in a diet, or just Summer made you lazy and need some entertainment?

First, we don't see anything about Turkey doing something other than some Ukro shitty Twitter account.
What does one need to have inside a head even to discuss that?
Azov thugs released from home custody in Turkey have already bombed, confirming that their miserable arses were saved only because Muricans had some big guys to evacuate. Another way, they would have been clean bones by now.
So what we have, is a de facto formal acknowledgment of a massive US direct involvement, including feet on the ground.
We have clear info that Ukrs are nothing more than cannon fodder for their supervisors - I won't call them masters for obvious reasons.
We have clear info, that even though nazi thugs think twice now if to return to the frontline, masquerading that with "need of training" shit.
Last but not least, we know now that Russkie were talking truth from the very beginning - so again, the best source of info is the official release of the Russkie MoD.
Do you really consider that other spectators won't notice that, again? And won't clash that with the shitload coming from the west??

Every single claim about change in Chinese narrative comes from western sources, known for creating demanded content no matter if there is a drop of truth inside.
Same time when this shit is being spread - including you discussing that and arguing your warmonger stupidities - the Chinese Navy chief sits calmly with his friend Shoigu in Moscow. Russian warships are patrolling side by side with the Chinese. And Russian planes are buzzing around the Taiwanese straits side by side with the Chinese.

You really haven't figured out yet, that it is actions not words you shall follow to get a clue?

...and the misadventures of the Wehrmacht continue.....

ukrainian POV, failed attack at zaporozhye

Some recently used chatGPT to simulate missile attack on Israel . There has been simulations and war games before also . Since Russia war machine , like other complex systems is a resultant political force with limitations , like a national Amoeba , reacting to stimuli . Would it be wise to rely on chatGPT for solution ? I think we can trust AI , since it said that it will not destroy humans ? Odessa is Russian and it's ports belong to Russia , for future trade , but also for marine landing to take over the region . Hitting rogue Ships is easiest . Supplies interdiction is possible for Russia at sea . But Bridges should be cut , since Russia can not use them to cross River to chase Orcs or confront NATO on Polish border . And Orcs maybe smuggling supplies across now , as we speak . To intercept moving armour with GPS Artillery cluster shells is not possible , and the laser variety needs illumination by drone . I suspect limitations in their use , by speed of vehicles and large search areas for drones . And as some said , the bunkers have top covers . Artillery units can have side and top covers .

mnztr wrote:
If Russia mines the ports no ships will sail as they will be non-insurable and it would be a conflict zone.

Maybe something happened in Syria or Libya that Erdogan is not happy about.

Two nails on the head.

All the Russians have to do is tell Lloyds of London (the insurers) that they will sink any ship leaving Odessa after the current Agreement ends (tomorrow?). This will make the ships uninsurable so no owner will want to risk their asset.

I suspect that the Russians couldn't care less about grain exports, what they really want to stop are any imports the ships might bring in and to get all those merchant ships out of the way.

So, if they were 'magnanimous' and for Rest of World PR purposes, they could instead say that any ship now loading will get safe passage on leaving. Also, that any ship currently waiting offshore to be unloaded/loaded will get safe passage out of Ukrainian waters if it leaves now, whilst any that remain will be regarded as potential targets, so uninsurable.

The Syrians and RuAF have started attacking Turkish proxy forces in northern Syria which no doubt upset Erdogan.

@Nomadski

If you believe that since the "commercial" and "open" appearance of some AI model with build in show-off "moral" and "ethics" guidelines and rules is the first time of open gates for modelling military analytical conflict measurements then you are naive. No offense.

This model is developed by a closed circle of engineers that is not disclosed to the public ergo has some hidden agenda. The fact, that it collects DATA more efficiently than Google, Facebook or any form of social media for complementary models on people and profiling them is already alarming.
For military, such AIs exist since far longer than the public would even know let alone they do not have shady "moral" or "ethical" guidelines to model their outcome.
Just even looking at the FSB and CIA modelling of potential conflicts is and was seen always soberly without any political motivation. They tried and commit logic to all their models, because at the end Politics is nothing more than a sharade or in layman terms marketing to sell you something more efficiently.

ChatGPT, even with circumventing the "moral" and "ethical" guidelines by somehow accessing the "DAN" interface is nothing to compare or to be used for military application, but for social engineering, streamlining models, code, language and fluent "blend-in" communication.  What ChatGPT does is collecting data and without a doubt lot of low-skilled to medium-skilled labor in service and work fields with human correctional substitute can be performed more efficiently with some AI input. This potentially can reduce human workforce. Hell, look at Germany in service field or bureaucratic field. You can thin out 90% of the people as they are useless and most what they do is scan some documents for errors of the person filling it out, checking if they are able to get a,b,c and decline or let it pass. They need months for a simple task like that. They are all lazy, knowing it from first hand experience and from people working there. An AI model trained for checking documents and all relevant data points for declining or passing a person's application/request can be done by a machine in less than one hour. This is only one of the fields it could be potentially applicable. Just imagine a highly bureaucratic structure that is the foundation of a highly corrupt institution like the German or any western or most governments on this planet, that potentially could leak information or incriminate their superiors could be eliminated by AIs that will ignore everything based on the person's ID or social credit score for that matter.  The application for AI is very broad and can potentially be used for good and evil, but we know who the guys with money are and their motives are certainly not good for the mass.

Anyways, AI has played since more than one or two decades major role in streamlining lot of processes, improvements and at the forefront BIG DATA collection for based modelling of future projects.

PS: One point that I forgot to mention is the stupidity and company secrets espionage with AI models like ChatGPT. You probably have no imagination of how stupid people are even in the IT sector where people are or should be more educated than they are. There are lot of people copying their code, configuration files and entire company secrets to ChatGPT just for laziness trying to improve named stuff for productive systems. This can't even be called espionage because retards just openly giving their company secrets to this AI. The majority of people all around the globe a fucking lobotomized NPCs. It's so easy for globalists to control the masses because they are in intelligence terms on the same level as cattle. It is sad.

SeigSoloyvov wrote:As I said the longer this war goes on, the worse the outcome for the Russians. They riak Ukraine getting pulled into NATO and more.

If this isn't a wake up call to Putin then they deserve what they get, they have had more then enough time

Stripped of the warmonger politician's comments, it is probably only Poland/Baltics that are really up for Ukraine in NATO before the allowed conditions are met i.e no border dispute/war etc.

As time goes on, given no evidence of a rapid ramp up in war material production all over the West whilst Russia has, the balance of power moves steadily east. Don't lose sight that the Russians want to eliminate the UA not gain territory and forcing them to come to them is very efficient. Whilst time doesn't seem to matter to them, minimising the effect on the civilian population does.

When you superimpose on top of that the economic situation in Europe with, at the head of it, the German industrial economy starting to crumble under the energy prices and supply issues, you again have to conclude that Russia has the trump cards.

Ukraine lost 2300 officers over the counter-offensive, tallied by lostarmour based on obituaries and posthumous awards issued.

Puts the total KIA in the 25k ballpark, bare minimum, for a bit more than a month. That's what Russia's presumed to have lost since the start of the "SMO"...

SeigSoloyvov wrote:
Not even the Russians have claimed, such an absurd number.
You see tons of videos of APCs getting hit by the troops inside are fine, so no just because an apc gets tagged doesn't mean the crew and passengers are dead, also Ukraine is even able to tow a lot of thes vehicles back for repairs
25k kia min is pure fantasy

You are opening your mouth again about a thing that is much beyond your comprehension, as you still have an issue adding 2+2.
25k KIA is the minimum, and we had days when the death tool strikes 1500.
A whole area is littered with Ukro corpses. Tons of them. There are a few of them in every single foxhole, and there are dozens of fresh films delivered daily.
Your most clear issue is a total lack of understanding of the overall scale of this war.
You are too dumb to understand that, or to much copium inhaled, or a combo.
You still don't get, that there are multiple available resources people can dig into to make a math?
And they do, and that's an effect.
We don't get a precise number for both sides, but we can check the mourning information. Closed/mourned TG or VK accounts. Announced post-mortem decorations. We never had a detailed number of Russian pilots lost, but here you have, a memorial opened, with all the names, dates, and helicopter types. All crystal clear.
Ukro losses passed 1:10 ratio a long time ago and rising.
It is not a bloody rocket science, but math and access to open sources that can't be denied because are spread and private. You can't beat a family that put a note about mourning for friends and family. You can't fake a local newspaper that presented two hero Ukroluftwaffe pilots mourning, even if the plane crashed behind the lines.
For the moment, there are some +400k Ukro KIAs, so just accept that fact and STFU because we are sick and tired of reading your dumbass ejaculations.

They lost around 10k in the first couple of weeks.

Vehicle crew/pax survivability is one thing, most KIA are concentrations of troops being blown up sans vehicles.

They have lost thousands dead only in precision strikes on the "schools and kindergarten and and and and...".
The last strike in Lvov, what was declared as a campus, was a campus indeed - but a campus of Land Forces Academy. Russkie pierced it bottom up, there was not a single window left in a three-wing building that was considered full of military.
It was actually quite funny, as I had a Ukro construction team on site, and they were discussing that with the "help" of known TG channels.
About how "gymnasium" was hit.
When I showed to them official info of the Ukroreich that it was a land forces academy hit, they firs commented that it is Russian propaganda Took them a moment to realize, that I have just read to them an official note from the site of Ukro MoD

This extrapolation based on confirmed officer/NCO deaths, posthumous award issuing trends etc puts the minimum overall "counter-offensive" KIAs at 19800 and the maximum at 62400.

That's a huge span, and the upper bound naturally resides in ludicrous land, but the lowest estimate is perfectly in line with others, and bad enough.