Russian special military operation in Ukraine #45

There is one even more deluded fool that believes NATO has some upper hand against Russia.

NATO has no military strength except of the US, which is only based on it's airforce and naval power. Which both are not able to show full potential since the war theater will be Europe and not North America. It will need to overextend it's logistical supply chains. These logistical supply chains are stationary big junctions like Frankfurt. What do you think will Russia do if it's conventional head on head engagement? They will destroy logistical chains and there are over 200 of them in Western Europe. Only 200. A lot in terms of logistics, not enough in terms of how many Missiles Russia has. They will be reduced to 1/3rd to what they are now. Germany is getting de-industrialized, all production will be outsourced to France and the US. Meaning supply chain will suffer greatly.

Russia is the only super power in land force terms and only China could contest it in near future, but neither Russia nor China have the physical capability to take over one or the other due to topological environment of far east of Russia and far north of China.

Germany has proven that it's artillery is the best in entire NATO but completely unreliable for war conditions. The US is inferior in that regard.

What is the total Artillery number and logistics for NATO? Can you tell me this? I really want to know this from you.

Artillery decides more than anything else, no matter your believes and this is historically proven over and over again.

I have been working in Logistics within the Bundeswehr and as a civilian in a big American company that for political reasons sanctioned themselves (retarded!).

Logistics and the entire logistical chain is a science of itself. Even if you manage to bring it on point from material, replacement, spare parts optimization, storage, transport and even to highly skilled professional employees, the one factor that you are not able to terminate is human idiocy, laziness, stupidity and bureaucrats. If you are old enough and have been working with other people then you most probably know some idiot that will hold up entire processes because of his lack of knowledge or pain in the ass approach. If you don't know anyone at your work place then most probably you are this guy. Anyways, Logistics on local and operational level is already quite complex let alone entire logistical chain, stretching from 1000 over 1000km with almost no direct communication between the points but all directed by some bureaucrats in some offices that have only papers and demands infront of them. They are the planners of this, studied that shit (hopefully) but have most probably little down to earth knowledge by actually working there. That is the big issue.

However, we know for a fact that even only on this little stretch of 1400km frontline and a few hundred kilometers from the Russian border of 2014 to it's todays border, that many vehicles from transport vehicles to tanks have broken down. Be it the terrain, the human error or the bad maintenance. What do you think what will happen to the logistics and war machinery for Poland trying to go to the front? How do you expect PONOS countries that need to cover double or even tripple the distance to the front with worse logistics and worse and more prone to break equipment like Germany?

Poland basically has no MIC, they still buy tanks from Germany (the guys that get de-industrialized) and now buy US Abrams. Germany, well told you already, they will buy Murican stuff or outsource it to Anglo-Saxons and the French. France even in war time production could only produce a hundred up to threehundred tanks, maybe half of artillery. Logistical wise the entire NATO as of now has little capability of transportation and relies on the European infrastructure. The same European infrastructure that has not the same standards as Soviet Infrastructure. While the Russians have limited capability to supply their front via off-road capable transport, the very same thing is not the case for NATO. Most is outsourced to civilian companies which can only drive on normal paved roads.

Do I really need to write you down all the steps in a head on head engagement that would be carried out when shit hits the fan?

Russia is superior in cruise missiles, drones, artillery, tanks, logistics and PVO.
How is NATO going to fight with lack of cruise missiles, lack of PVO capable enough to destroy russian cruise missiles and BM?

I really believe that you have no idea about the real numbers of NATO forces, neither in manpower nor in aircrafts, vehicles nor logistics.

As of right now, they are completely easy to destroy without even bringing tanks to Poland.

Russia could storm all European NATO allies with cruise missiles and wait for them to drive their man power to the front and blow up with artillery. NATO has short hands and weak on top of it. US WILL NOT be part of it! They will send their MEAT shield towads Russia. That is what NATO members have been groomed for.

The US's economy is based only on Petro dollar as world currency and on MIC and will force the stupid Europeans to buy their stuff.

Really if ya copium addicts had any sense, you'd see this is actually good for NATO as it's a problem that's going to be addressed when there is no direct confrontation just proxy.

You are right in the sense that this is a massive wakeup call for HATO, but the real problem is that they wont be ready for a conventional conflict with any decent enemy for 10 years, while Russia now knows its posture and preparation are right on the money...

Copium is not required, this is a HATO fuckup, Russia is actually doing everything just right despite the advice it is getting from every direction.

This amount other matters, but yes enjoy laughing for the short term, enjoy while you can

They fucked up, their gear is not suited to real wars and they don't have enough ammo on hand to cover them till they can ramp up production to a war level... they may never catch up.

More important they have thrown 100 billion dollar at the Ukraine and have nothing at all to show for it, and likely will be spending hundreds of billions over the next decade to get to the point they should have been before this conflict started... remember they had 8 years to build up Kievs forces for this conflict and they are folding against a Russia with one hand in their pocket.

Their economy not only didn't collapse but it is flourishing with new trade partners and world wide understanding that the west are the bad guys here.

Everyone said, without NATO logistics or part of a proper NATO combined arms divisions, air support. The tanks would perform poorly. Only cheerleaders said otherwise but that's their job, so paper tiger no.

A very basic and obvious military concept that HATO should have been well aware of, but they kept talking about game changers like Javelin and NLAW and Stinger and M777 and MLRS and HIMARS and Storm Shadow and Brimstone and Starstreak and IRS-T and NASAMs and Patriot, and of course their super drone technology including Turkish and American and western drones...

in a conventional war with NATO Russia loses and Putin knows this and has even said it's suicide to attack NATO, that's why he relies upon Mutually assured destruction.

He said it would be suicidal because it would be nuclear because HATO countries wont tolerate the level of losses that Kiev is taking and would start using nukes as soon as they could. This is a force HATO has been preparing and arming since 2014... they admit that themselves...

Only insane arm chair generals think Russia can win that.

Actually a conventional war against HATO would be easier than what they are doing now because those C4STAR assets finding targets for Kievs forces would be dealt with and HATO bases hit with hypersonic missiles that I doubt western air defences would even notice let alone be able to stop... you think HATO air power will roam over Russian airspace with impunity?

Just by math your a fool of you think that, Russia doesn't have the manpower needed to sustain the humongous fronts it would need, and to occupy key areas that it would need to in order to defeat NATO

Article 5 does not elaborate what help must be given by all signed up states... if you read it properly just because you signed up to HATO does not mean you need to send any forces to help... Turkey is part of HATO and no HATO countries came to help Turkey regarding its Kurdish problems... in fact many European countries actively helped the Kurds including but not only Sweden. I doubt Greece would be too keen to risk its own men saving Turkey and vice versa.

India has supported the idea of a BRICS currency. Just that India has mentioned that this should be a novel currency that is created by all the BRICS members and this should not be the Chinese Yuan.

My understanding was that the new BRICS trade currency was going to be a new currency and was only going to be used in trade between BRICS countries and was not going to be based on any existing currency... a bit like the Euro was not used by any European country when it was invented, though it was adopted by EU countries, the BRICS currency is an international trade currency... a currency specifically intended for trade between countries.

China has been pouring in billions to promote anti India propaganda both in Russia and the West. Recently came across a Chinese video where they were promoting anti India propaganda in Russia. A young Russian woman interviewed by them said she hates "the Hindus" because they are cannibals. Almost all the Russians interviewed only had negative things to say about India.

And there are Indians doing the same demonising China... I think we can ignore both fringe idiot types as being western stooges trying to derail something that will make the west obsolete.

India and China know a thing or two about western white colonial powers interfering in their countries... which they continue to try to do.

Germany and Japan made the mistake of underestimating US industrial production. It will only take a year or two to ramp up production and Ukrainian magazines will filled to the till

Good... that means ammo dumps make bigger booms when they are hit... Ukraine isn't losing this because it does not have enough weapons... it is losing this because its leaders and mission planners are fucking idiots... if this is HATO then this is a total joke... the last little offensive last year where they sent in lots of bodies to find weak points and then sent in the trained guys to overwhelm those weak spots and they make some advances... well they are trying it again but there are no weak spots... Russia has its shit together and is spotting the enemy at a distance and taking them out before they even get to Russian lines... so they really have no idea where the weak defences are because they have not got anywhere near them... they included a few western super weapons thinking they might be all that is needed to bust through... a Bradley and a Leopard hand in hand just drilling through the Russian lines with the poor drunk under trained Russian conscripts not knowing what to do... but reality is that drones and artillery and anti tank guided missiles from attack helicopters plus mine laying rockets dropping mines in front of and behind armoured units is destroying these little probing attacks before they find out what they are sent to find out so Kiev is still blind as to where to send the bulk of its forces and artillery ammo is running out to the point where they will have to use cluster munitions because there is nothing else.

All the while Russia is looking around for staging areas for the bulk of their forces... ammo and fuel dumps and armour and every time they find something and destroy it their actual counter offensive is looking worse and worse... not to mention their trained units watching the cannon fodder going forward and not coming back getting slaughtered by mines and artillery and not getting any artillery or air power support for their attacks might be wondering what their own chances will be... no level of HATO training will help when Russia starts raining sub munitions on Kievs forces when Kiev starts using such weapons.

And all this massive production of ammo and weapons... the reason they don't have a lot is because of how eye wateringly expensive it all is... has it become cheaper?

Building factories in a rush does not make it cheaper or improve quality.

Simply put, even if they build those new production lines, they will not have the resources nessesary to even begin competing with Russia, muchless Russia and China.

It's over for the West.

And when the US builds all those factories to ramp up production Russia might stop supplying uranium fuel for the nuke power stations...

Russia has been mild in its responses to the west so far... they haven't even begun to respond to what the west has already done...

Your right there isn't, because you cling to fallacies, Russia will never have the amount of missiles needed to impos such damage on NATO you clearly underestimate how much damage Russia would need to cause. Will millions die on both sides, yes. Would Russia cause heavy damage, yes.

Russia is in a better position to cause damage to Europe than vice versa... Russian hypersonic missiles can hit targets... European missiles have to get to their targets.

But it's still going to lose, NATO is a much different beast than Ukraine.

HATO is vastly more fragile and internally conflicted... Ukraine had something approaching an air defence network which even when broken posed a threat... HATO has token air defence.

The more NATO seea the more it will correct

The corrections they need to make will take decades... and cost trillions and they are already in debt...

Yeah and Germany is opening new production lines..again your so deluded you only think short term.

First they said they would open them in the Ukraine and then they said Poland, but even the one in Poland has been cancelled because the Poles wanted Germany to essentially pay for everything.

The public dirty laundry and drama that is repeatedly put on full display in the Russian command structure is just pathetic.

They have a more open society with the transparency that the west claims to have... you should be used to this sort of thing.

By the way... keeping things out of the headlines so as not to damage the organisation is the excuse the Catholic church and the BBC use to hide pedophiles in their ranks.

This mindset is laughable, Russia is doing this with Ukraine and it's nearly two years in and not any closer to victoryz try it with NATO which will quickly shift to wartime and the Russians will simply get overran and out produced.

If it was a conflict with HATO then it would be much easier... hypersonic missiles hitting Brussels and US military bases first in most countries... then hit major airfields and command and communication centres and power stations and the west would go to pieces... even just cutting off all energy supplies...

The west could care less about Ukrainian bodies but once European bodies start piling up and martial law goes in to effect in western countries shit will get real real fast.

it's pure moronic thoughts to think missile strikes are going to make NATO quit, you will need to occupy the countries etc and Russia doesn't have that kind of manpower no one does

Russia is never going to invade HATO, it has no interest in expanding into hostile populations... any attack by Russia on HATO nations will be to destroy a threat... no need to be nice... DU weapons and cluster bombs all the way dude.

As for Russia the actual military commanders know a full scale war (conventional )with NATO is a L. That's why they are trying to prevent Ukraine from going into NATO. Only armchair fools here think Russia can win a conventional war with a NATO

HATO is air power that failed against Germany during most of WWII.

Of course, Russia is not able to conquer NATO either, conventionally it does not have such occupation forces, etc. However, it can deliver a very strong blow with conventional missiles.

Russia does not need to invade and conquer... a few missiles to smack the leaders and then wait for the replacements to see what they think of taking on Russia...

If this is true, Putin is a cuck. Unreal…

Erdogoon statements 

Anyway, Russia has more pressing problems than some loose azov, now matter how sour it is.


58th leadership is not having a good time, it’s silly to see chair shuffling at this time

SeigSoloyvov wrote:

bandit6 wrote:Russia just doesn't know how much trouble it's in. Germany and Japan made the mistake of underestimating US industrial production. It will only take a year or two to ramp up production and Ukrainian magazines will filled to the till


Tbf Japan knew day one it was going to get out produced, They knew they had a year at best. They hoped to win in that one year cause if they didn't they knew it was over.

Germany counted on Japan winning.

As for Russia the actual military commanders know a full scale war (conventional )with NATO is a L. That's why they are trying to prevent Ukraine from going into NATO. Only armchair fools here think Russia can win a conventional war with a NATO

told you before Sieg Heil, America today is not the same America of the 1940s, most of there manufacturing industry is gone mostly to Mexico and China, The Special Operation has been going on for nearly a year and a half and America has been arming Ukraine for 9 years and have been planning this for at least 10 years, for Russia to invade Ukraine, America's plan all along, for example to restart F-22 production Lockheed Martin said it would cost $10s of billions to restart F-22 production and the way things are going with US relations with China, China may halt Titanium to America and Russia would most likely join in the ban, China and Russia produces 150,000 tons of the 210,000 tons produced every year

China produces the bulk of the rare earth metals in the world and not America, America is living on past glories

Ned86 wrote:
Artillery shells maybe.....but you can't simply ramp up production of submarines, planes, helicopters, tanks and etc...
Even ramping up production of shells will be difficult.....

But again wait and see......there were a lot of talk about UA counteroffensive and how NATO equipment would give blow to Russian forces. Nothing happen so far....

there were talking how NATO is superior in drones and there were big talks about Bayraktar, Switchblade etc......and at the end of the day we keep seeing 100+ videos of Lancet drone destroying military equipment. Btw, in case you miss Lancet is Russian drone.

I wouldn't judge just from what we actually see on social media as they just reflect a very partial P.O.V. of the whole picture.
Still I'll dare to say that it was the smaller, field troop's operated FPV drones, loitering ammo and small artillery reconnaissance UAV like the Orlan that got the spotlight there. Nato was ahead in the larger, Air Force operated, UAV/UAS like Predators, Reaper and Bairaktyar themselves.

They are still widely used, just not in the way they were during the counter-insurgency operations in ME i.e. dropping ordnances over some Toyota pick-ups something would be rather suicide in a peer-to-peer conflict. They made recon with them, not actual combat.

So, we can say NATO has a definitive advantage in what it is Intelligence Gathering due their fleet of airborne sensors (and with the problems Russia have with producing transport planes they would keep it for a quite long time) but it lack enough effectors to made good use of such advantage.

He like most indoctrinated superhumans don't believe nor understand that Russia displaying restrain and very little destructive power in Ukraine is not the approach the NATO fools will face.

In Ukraine a lot of Russians have family and therefor the approach is held back in force and number.
This is also our land and we will protect it.

Even after they blew up part of the Crimean bridge and Surovikin was bombarding them as a consequence with over 80 cruise missiles only 14 in total people have died all in meanwhile the Ukropian propaganda was shouting "GENOCIDE". Only and exclusively infrastructure was hit, not civilian residential buildings and no one suffered who wasn't meant to be hit anyways (not from Russian missiles).

There is also a methodical brainwashing of ЦИПСО trying to create a fuzz about Russia's "failure" to weaken NATO, by stating that tryint to prevent Ukraine as a NATO member they now face Sweden and Finland as NATO partners.

What most people fail to understand is, NATO would get much stronger when Ukraine would join as a full NATO member than with Finland (active 24.000 manpower/200.000 potential mobilized) and Sweden (active 16.000/120.000potential mobilized). Ukraine has already lost more than both countries combined and that is only the military personal at the fighting front! The numbers for Finland and Sweden are TOTAL mobilized forces within a period year. You have to understand that roughly 1/3rd are front soldiers or any kind of service personal that is directly involved in combat, the rest is split in logistics, administration, communication and all the other branches that somehow are supportive of former mentioned fields of task.

On top of that, Fins and Swedish people are not related to us and we will not hesitate to use weapons with less thought for collateral damage. We do not need to care of the aftermath for their economy, demographics or our relationships with them. They came with war to our door not the other way around. The only deciding factor in this is who will do it. Putin will care more trying to avoid collateral damage than someone else.

The NATO war right now is not feasible and we will only see it in 12+ years, from my understanding of the current situation, but that is also the same time window when Russia will unite with Belarus and half of Ukraine and what follows after wards is where people like me gets drafted to the front and looking the locations of some of the active users on the forum may guess is some of you too.

fleet of airborne sensors

Most of them only work in peacetime or when they can hide behind a proxy.
In an open war all those 60 year old KC-135 derivatives are piles of burning metal in a few hours.


Twitter news:
The AFU has retreated from Novoselovskoye south of Kupyansk on the Svatovo-Kremennaya front. The town has been liberated by Russian forces.

Mir wrote:

billybatts91 wrote:If this is true, Putin is a cuck.

Think about it...Russia can't kill those Nazi commanders whilst they are living it up in luxury in Turkey without political ramifications - BUT they can if they go back to The 4th Reich

I think it's a pretty decent chess move

They already used as propaganda troops, they will never see action. Plenty of PR troops like that

In 2 days the Ukros lost nearly all their "gains" since the start of their mighty counter-offensive 7 weeks ago.

Mir wrote:

billybatts91 wrote:If this is true, Putin is a cuck.

Think about it...Russia can't kill those Nazi commanders whilst they are living it up in luxury in Turkey without political ramifications - BUT they can if they go back to The 4th Reich

I think it's a pretty decent chess move

Those Nazi guys were never fans of Zelensky or the US or NATO... less so after their capture! Bet you Zelensky doesn't trust nor sleep well knowing they have his back

A conventional direct war between the Atomic powers , will last at most 24 hours . Then Nukes will fly . Pointless talking about conventional symmetric war with NATO . Or production capacity . Ukraine is different , in the sense that it is politically costly for a Nuke power to Nuke a non- Nuke power .But very tempting in my view , especially if they are mini - Nukes , earth penetrating or Sub-Sea types , easily confused with FOAB's . Similar to why the Usraelis can not Nuke Hezb- Allah forces in Lebanon . But wait ! Maybe they did ! That is why I say Russia to commit fully all conventional forces now in Ukraine , and if war expands to NATO , then forget about conventional war , you won't need them . If Russia can agree about partition of Ukraine along Deniper with NATO , then Kiev can be starved of Ammo , if they disagree . Bridges remain intact and insure equal access to water equally for both sides . Russia of course controls Odessa port for civilian use for both sides .

ucmvulcan wrote:Lets talk about American production.  Back in the 40s we had a large pool of industrial workers.  We had lots and lots and lots factories.  Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Buffalo, Kansas City produced steel.  Wichita, Kansas City, Detroit, Los Angeles, Seattle produced tanks, jeeps, planes, guns.  From Bangor Maine to Miami in Florida and from Seattle to San Diego and from Galveston to Tampa we had vast ship yards.  Texas gave us oil.  We were the undisputed kings of industry.  Warning, propaganda ahead, but its based on fact:

We had all this industrial capacity, all these skilled workers and available labor to build these things to the point where we produced enough weaponry to supply ourselves and our allies and even our foes with weapons, logistics, food, and support equipment and buildings.  

That was then.  In WWI and WWII (Great Patriotic War), what you say was true.

Now?

Well, offshoring has put most US production in China and Mexico and etc.  US factories are now empty weed grown lots.  Most Americans are unskilled in terms of factory work and most Americans do not want that sort of monotonous job.

Wait, there's more.  See in the 1930s Americans got to accept doing without.  The Great Depression was a bitch.  However, the experiences of doing without and a faith in the Roosevelt administration (that was by and large much deserved) meant that when FDR said we need to cinch in our belts and sacrifice for the good of the country and our British, French, Soviet, Chinese, etc allies we did.  Now? There is no way that Americans are going to risk jeopardizing our consumer culture to give a clown in Ukraine the shells on the level he needs.  There is no way that we are going to accept for long term increased taxes for a clown in Ukraine.  America has become the land of the rugged individualist and lacks the means of production.  The industrial capacity is lacking too.  We talk a good game and make enough to terrorize the predominantly black and brown and mostly unarmed global south but we don't have the capacity to fight a Russo-Indian-Iranian-North Korean-Chinese bloc.  

Will or won't is a different thing.

As for the manufacturing base the US is second behind China, we have PLENTLY OF factories, not in the same places as WW2 sure that's true

Also your comment is riddled with what ifs and blind assumptions, The US has the manpower, the manufacturing base and more to easily out produce the Russians if changed to a wartime economy this is a simple fact and we got plenty of resources.

I am not entertaining these idiotic notions that Russia can win conventionally simply because they cant and there is no shame in that, if you put the US in Russia position, we would also lose simply put Russia would enjoy some success for the first few years but once shit got to shift into gears they are done, they will be ground down to nothing. No one country on Earth could fight all of NATO on its own and win.

I am not here to sniff glue with copium addicts, these armchair experts here do not know better than the Russian MOD they claim to admire but act as if they know better, its hilarious to hear and see these excuses.

When the very guys they claim would win say "War with NATO is suicide" then I am not even interested in debates or entertain delusional fantasies period.

Not saying the russians would get bitch slapped or do no damage, sure they would put up a hell of a fight but in the end they would loose in a conventional war and they know, they have said it and this is why they invest heavy into ICBM tech and what not because that's their only real defense against NATO "okay if you attack us we all die together". This is simple fact.

ALAMO wrote:Wrong. IT is nobody going to discuss with you, Rambo

Not wrong on anything I said but keep your delusions held high I guess, please apply to the russians MOD if you know better than them, oh wait.....you DON'T