Russian special military operation in Ukraine #58

Belisarius wrote:

mnztr wrote:
AF 447 was a very unique accident. When the plane had almost no forward velocity and pancaked into the ocean. So the impact velocity was about vertical under 200 kph as it was held in a steep positive trajectory at full power all the way in.

The closest thing we've had to an A-50 being shot down is the shoot down of the Il-76 carrying Ukrainian POWs, and here, even with the aircraft crashing into a harder surface we have this:



So tsavo's argument that no sizable wreckage could be found is nonsense.

Sure, the only ones I have seen where they is nothing but confetti is when the go in almost vertical with high power setting. Like the 737 rudder accidents and a hijack suicide crash.

They shot down something, else the Investigative Committee would not have issued an arrest warrant. And no wreckage was witnessed for what they shot down. It had to be at least a medium-size aircraft to carry a crew of 10.

So I have to agree that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

But the facts of the crew size and the arrest warrant and the mysterious lack of details around the whole thing don't lend to the conclusion that it was an A-50 either.

Now even Putin's plane is escorted by fighters, even over Siberia & the Far East:
https://youtu.be/x7RCwO0nwuY

https://youtu.be/nDyVeTIQSTI

https://asiatimes.us14.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2049a8663daea00bd30c32cf2&id=4487bd1672&e=5455568640

ucmvulcan wrote:My favorite claims so far:

You forgot Putins many life-threatening health problems... or that China & Russia could never put aside their differences and work together...

So much big fun. Future generations will use the word murkan as slang for stupid.

Decommunization continues:

During the night, the Russian Armed Forces launched another massive strike on Ukrainian energy facilities.

It is reported that the equipment of thermal power plants in Kiev, Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovsk regions and in the Kiev-controlled part of the DPR was damaged.

ucmvulcan wrote:

Russia is stealing toilets because they don't have indoor plumbing.  I looked that one up.  Its partially true in that 20 percent of Russians are not hooked up to sewer systems.  That's not as hilarious as NAFO mutts think it is because these are rural folks and they have systems similar to what rural Americans and Canadians call septic tanks.  Now if you want a real laugh, 40+ percent of Ukrainians don't have indoor plumbing. Those who shit in outhouses should not cast the first used toilet paper is all I am saying

This thing is even more crazy than it seems.
Ukro propaganda is going high on toilets, because ... it is Ukro fetish.
In rural, western Ukraine sewer system is a rarity, and almost nonexistent.
We are talking about 80s rural standard, as in 30 years of "nezavisimost" they constructed perfectly nothing.
Try to refresh your memories, how this standard looked like 40 years ago, if you can - I still remember my grandgrandmothers house.
They had a bathroom/toilet in it, because everybody had one - yet it was not functional, as not connected to any outflow.
A whole construct is based on Ukrainian mentality, and is a piece of propaganda deliberately targeting their fetishes.
A real freak show is, when Russkie on streams are death seriously asking Ukro peasants to show them their precious toilets.
And those poor dumb arses really run around their barns masqueraded as homes to show the crown jewel - A TOILET.

Hole wrote:David Axe should work for Disney.

He likes black meat in his arse, you mean?

Russian MoD reports 2165 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12517349@egNews

Western sponsorship will last for a very long time. Russia's armed forces will probably be exhausted sooner or weakened enough for Ukraine to capitulate or want to negotiate peace terms.

Western donations have already turned into loans and pretty soon those western countries giving those loans are going to realise this Kiev side are suicidal and will end up living in the west on the wests money and they wont be getting any of their money back.

There is already a negotiation going on about investments to which Kiev is most likely to default on, which would mean going bankrupt... which is going to destroy any capacity for them to get any more international money from anyone in the west... and the rest of the world are not giving them any money... November is the deadline, which is ironic because that could also be when they lose Biden. Sleepy Joe is driving this... Trump will probably disown the whole situation but he sees himself as a great deal maker so he will offer a deal and I think Putin wont like it and will say no and then Trump will do something stupid, and Putin will step things up... and Trump will find something else that needs his attention.

Good luck to the west in their efforts but they will fail - only this time around it will cost them dearly.

You describe Russian and Soviet character well, but you miss the fact that when the west loses interest it can drop things like hot rocks... one second you are the key to the worlds freedom and democracy, and the next they wont even answer your phonecalls and they will not mention you unless some reporter brings up your current plight and they will blame the previous administration and say there are no funds available... we have to build a wall between Taiwan and China you see... we are going to call it the great wall of China Taiwan... and we will get the Mexicans to build it.

I know they will fail, but they will keep it up as long as they can until the Ukrainian army capitulates.

Investors in the west are starting to realise that the 12 trillion in resources in Ukraine are not going to be in reach if ever again, while the hundreds of trillions in resources in Russia is being cut off from western interests by this little cold war... who cares if Putin protects Ukraines resources and allows the Ukrainians to extract those resources and use them to rebuild their country as a neutral country or part of the Russian Federation.

Denying it to the west is the best way to punish the west for creating this situation in the first place. Letting the locals benefit from their resources and rebuild their territory in a safe and either neutral country or a country that is part of the Russian federation is all Russia wants... they have their own resources and do not need to steal them like the west intended to do to the Ukraine.

AF 447 was a very unique accident. When the plane hit it had almost no forward velocity and pancaked into the ocean. So the impact velocity was about vertical under 200 kph as it was held in a steep positive trajectory at full power all the way in.

Big airplanes don't just disappear on impact and impact into 10m deep water means fires wont destroy very much at all.

An A-50 crashing into that body of water would be easy to spot if you are looking... and for a long time after the crash... aircraft are not made of lead and don't disappear under silt overnight.

Now even Putin's plane is escorted by fighters, even over Siberia & the Far East

Putins plane has always been escorted. You never know when an ICC goon might turn up and try to arrest him for cruelly removing children from a war zone and sending them somewhere where they can sleep and night and will be safe.... what a bastard.

Russian MoD reports 2165 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours.

Well this new Ukrainian commander that promised to be more defensive and reduce casualties to Ukraine and make Russia bleed for every square centimetre they took is not really working out properly as expected.

Not surprising since the freshest Kiev meat is barely trained. Expect this daily rate to increase to 3000 and beyond. This will be coupled
with a collapse.

Or the colonic could continue until the west drops them because they know they can't win or even break even in this conflict.

GarryB wrote:Trump will probably disown the whole situation but he sees himself as a great deal maker so he will offer a deal and I think Putin wont like it and will say no and then Trump will do something stupid, and Putin will step things up... and Trump will find something else that needs his attention.

The new president of US will enter service only after mid January 2025, we will see if will be Trump or not. We could even have a civil war over there.

Russia does not plan any large operation to finish the war soon, but it could be also possible (even if unlikely) that Ukraine will collapse before that, or that they will seriously start an insurrection against the Ukrainian government (and maybe large groups of soldier will defect or take arms against their former comrades)

Big airplanes don't just disappear on impact and impact into 10m deep water means fires wont destroy very much at all.
An A-50 crashing into that body of water would be easy to spot if you are looking... and for a long time after the crash... aircraft are not made of lead and don't disappear under silt overnight.

if there were any large identifiable fragments, the Russians would've removed or blown them up the next day. In any case, no pics would show it to be as a recognizable A-50 with 100% certainty, & the Russians could say that they r showing something else, or fake. The underwater pics of B-747 KAL-007 shot down in 1983 were released only many years later, & if it was in shallower water, its debries would still be unrecognizable from space.

Putins plane has always been escorted.

not over the RF before Prigozhin's attempted coup.
Compare 2 latest interviews:
https://libertarianinstitute.org/articles/joe-bidens-time-interview-should-set-off-alarms/  https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2024/06/20/1045197-chto-putin-rasskazal  https://www.ng.ru/news/795601.html?print=Y

https://www.ng.ru/armies/2024-06-20/2_9032_prisoners.html?print=Y

https://theconversation.com/ukraines-draft-woes-leave-the-west-facing-pressure-to-make-up-for-the-troop-shortfall-231348

https://news.antiwar.com/2024/06/19/nyt-zelenskys-government-crushes-press-freedoms-in-ukraine/

Any figures for Ukrs POW ? Surely if the demoralised Ukrs troops only hear about high casualty numbers , then they see no way out of the cauldron but to fight to the death ! Since they can not retreat . Are they being given the chance to surrender ? Perhaps the Fab attacks could lead to immobilization , and troops directed to put guns down and survive and become POW ? Did mention drones being used to take prisoners by communicating with troops encircled .



A ceasefire based on present frontlines to organize now very difficult IMHO . The war turns into the terminal final existential phase . Can not be practical freeze on all troop movements and arms supplies . Unconditional surrender or defeat only way out for Ukrs .

Arrow wrote:https://m.vk.com/video-123538639_456309451


The German concern Rheinmetall announced that it had received a record order in recent history for the supply of 155-mm ammunition worth 8.5 billion euros.

Deliveries will begin in early 2025. The main buyer will be the Federal Republic of Germany, which will provide supplies to Ukraine.

Further to this

The new ammunition facility is expected to produce 100,000 projectiles from the second year of production, reaching a capacity of 200,000 per year thereafter.


This still lags behind Russia.

And it's going to take two years to get up to 100,000 per year.

How long will it take them to produce €9.1bn worth of shells that works out to around 1,820,000 shells it will take them years by that time Ukraine won't need them as it will be defeated by this order is fulfilled. I can see two things happening either German will have loads of shells sitting in warehouses for years or the German government ends up reducing the order massively.

The majority of the world is with Russia: turn on Kiev and the West at the 'Ukraine peace summit’ by Javier Benítez for Sputnikspanish. 06.20.2024.

A failure. That was the result of the much-mentioned, by the West, ‘Ukraine peace summit’ held in Switzerland. Of the 92 countries that submitted, many of which had second- and third-level representatives, fewer than 80 have supported the final communique. Meanwhile, some, such as the United States and Germany, withdrew already on the first day.

Chronicle of an announced failure

Among those who refused to sign the final declaration are key countries of the so-called Global South, such as the cases of India, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Armenia and Slovakia.

The summer sales were brought forward this year: of Volodymyr Zelensky's supposedly irreducible initial plan of 10 points so acclaimed, only three appeared in the document, leaving out the most vital geopolitically, such as, for example, returning to the 1991 borders, or that Russian troops leave territory that became part of the Russian Federation as new regions in 2022.

First: "Ukrainian nuclear power plants and facilities, including the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, must operate safely and securely under the full sovereign control of Ukraine and in accordance with the principles of the IAEA and under its supervision. Any threat or use of nuclear weapons in the context of the ongoing war against Ukraine is inadmissible."

Secondly: "Full and safe commercial navigation, as well as access to the seaports of the Black and Azov Seas to ensure global food security. Food security should not be turned into a weapon of any kind. Ukrainian agricultural products must be supplied safely and freely to the interested third countries."

Third: "All illegally deported and displaced Ukrainian children, and all other illegally detained Ukrainian civilians, must be returned to Ukraine.

During this discussion set up by the West in Switzerland, the acting prime minister of the Netherlands wanted to grab headlines: "This meeting sends a very strong message to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and I would like to say this to him: ‘Many at this table have said that Russia should have been here and I completely agree. Today, you should have been here," said the gentleman who knows very well that he knows perfectly well that Zelensky prohibited by law to negotiate with Moscow, and more specifically with President Putin. The strong message thing, maybe it's because he said it loudly, if not, it's not understood.

Referring to this summit and the expressions expressed by the Western participants, the international analyst Pablo Jofré Leal warns that "undoubtedly we are witnessing a comedy".

"This is a circus, this is a NATO staging. With all the certainty of saying that a country that has appeared to be neutral over the decades, but that simply and simply what it has done in its apparent neutrality is to benefit from banking secrecy, dark deposits, as is Switzerland. A country that actively participates in supporting one of the parties cannot be neutral," the analyst concludes.

Yandex Translate from Spanish.

https://latamnews.lat/20240620/la-mayoria-del-mundo-esta-con-rusia-revolcon-a-kiev-y-occidente-en-la-cumbre-de-paz-de-ucrania-1155601679.html

Russia military 2022 could never, Russian military 2024 smooth as butter.

In August 2022, Legitimniy already confirmed the loss of 12 Himars launchers.

https://t.me/legitimniy/13286

Belisarius wrote:

Russia military 2022 could never, Russian military 2024 smooth as butter.

In August 2022, Legitimniy already confirmed the loss of 12 Himars launchers.

https://t.me/legitimniy/13286

And a whole bunch of Tochkas, which were being used in the same way. Don't see any of those these days, they've all gone extinct.