Russian special military operation in Ukraine #58

caveat emptor wrote:
-country is militarily not ready for this escalation 
- Putin is not the right person for the job.

Arkanghelsk wrote:JUST IN: Russian police under fire on the streets in Dagestan.

Russian authorities confirm the militants are using NATO supplied weapons.

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Damn !!!

flamming_python wrote:There will be action one way or the other, however hesitant, and however much more escalation and debate it will demand, and by that time a war with NATO will indeed be inevitable, all trains would have long left the stations and all ships set sail, there will be too much forward momentum to take a step back.

And that's the danger of the situation. The Russian failure to react in a timely manner in fact dissolves the chances of de-escalation, not improves it.

caveat emptor wrote:

Odin of Ossetia wrote:Why attack Poland and Romania?


What would that achieve?

They are main logistical hubs for weapons and ammunition delivery to Ukraine. Donated planes are, very likely, already on their airports. 
Even if de jure they're not in a state of war with Russia, de facto situation on the ground is self-explanatory. 
This "special operation" is much bigger than even Russo-Ukrainian war for a while now.  
Obviously, there's always possibility that there are reasons retaliation against NATO didn't occur:
-country is militarily not ready for this escalation 
- Putin is not the right person for the job.

Shows dead bodies. NSFW:

Arkanghelsk wrote:You can start with PMF, SAA, and LNA

With regard to Ukraine the precedent was already set by NATO and it’s going to be hard to justify any strikes on NATO without a good proxy force

But you can kill their troops and blow up their bases in Middle East, and LNA can hit Sigonella

You can also give the Kanaks of New Caledonia nice weapons too to shoot at French police the way they do in Dagestan

flamming_python wrote:
So you're trying to say that Russia should start with something that the West has already been doing since February 24th, 2022 - that's to say arming and supplying and sending mercenaries to whoever Russia is at war with?

Russia should already have been doing all that. And starting to do that now will impress no-one. Time is running out for Russia to make an impression.

Arkanghelsk wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
So you're trying to say that Russia should start with something that the West has already been doing since February 24th, 2022 - that's to say arming and supplying and sending mercenaries to whoever Russia is at war with?

Russia should already have been doing all that. And starting to do that now will impress no-one. Time is running out for Russia to make an impression.

LDNR was already integrated into 1st and 2nd army corps

A real proxy is needed, PMR would be ideal but they can’t be supplied without direct land bridge


I don’t see how you can do it unless you just own it and say Russia is hitting NATO directly

But then you have WW3

Integrating the LDNR militias was a bad idea , they could have been used for these type of strikes

Bad miscalculation

flamming_python wrote:
That's easy, get Yanukovich to create a fake Ukrainian state and transfer him some Kalibrs

sepheronx wrote:That will still get NATO involved directly.  As they will attack those areas of Ukraine with full NATO force because of "Ma Article 5".

Ultimately, Russia has to do a no fly zone around the Black Sea closest to Crimea, shoot down all US Drones.

Apparently this ATACMS attack on the beaches was done via a launcher on a dry cargo ship.  So that means also going and attacking and sinking Ukraine's shipping vessels.

Russia needs to learn how to do that part first (hitting UAV's where no one dies) before attempting others.  Because if the Putin government and military are too weak and incompetent to do that, then you can forget about the rest.

Arkanghelsk wrote:
But I think once the escalation reaches a level , he can explain to them why it’s needed and that’s how the goal posts shift every couple of months

Karl Haushofer wrote:

What level would that be? How many Russians need to die to "convince" Putin?

caveat emptor wrote:

flamming_python wrote:
That's easy, get Yanukovich to create a fake Ukrainian state and transfer him some Kalibrs

It's too late for that. Yanukovich would have to control some territory in Ukraine for that. 
Maybe they could arm Hezbolah with actual ONIKS and other anti shipping missiles. Because, if Israel-Hez war starts you can bet your ass that US NAVY will be involved. Also, make arm shipments through Syria for Hez free flowing. 
Also, upgrading status of SMO would help with  further mobilization of the country. Mostly in weapons production which is still not enough. 
A lot of new systems are nowhere to be seen after 2+ years of war.

Arkanghelsk wrote:

Karl Haushofer wrote:

What level would that be? How many Russians need to die to "convince" Putin?

Whatever it takes to get Abramovich, Potanin, Deripaska, and company to sign off

Look all those videos of Belousov getting mad at some low level MOD guys is for the plebs

The real decision makers are Russian billionaires

And that’s true for every country

They just have to reckon with a strong government and Putin, but they still have a say

Putin can’t just do what he wants over them, they can remove him if they need to- it could fail , but Prigozhin showed that oligarchs still have a say