Russian special military operation in Ukraine #61

It has been to my notice lately that some Western sources circulate the idea of negotiating dragging Ukraine to EU and even NATO in exchange for a truce and giving away the liberated areas. This should not happen.
This should be an American style unconditional surrender, change of leadership etc. and Ukraine should be either constitutionaly away from any organisation where USA, Germany and UK participate or occupied.

French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced that the Mirage 2000 fighters will be handed over to Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025. The aircraft are currently being equipped in Cazaux (referring to the French Aerospace Forces combat training center Centre d'Expertise de l'Armement Embarqué) with new air-to-surface weapons and electronic warfare systems. The training of Ukrainian flight and technical personnel is also ongoing.

https://t.me/bmpd_cast/21075

A few Mirages to shoot down in exchange of half of Sahel seems a fair deal to me

It is not, but it is very doubtful. Russia barely has the strength to advance the front at a very slow pace in Donbas. Not to mention some mystical offensive on Kiev.

Someone choosing to walk carefully through a minefield to avoid standing on mines and losing limbs is not evidence that they are unable to move faster if they needed to.

There is no current urgency, and ground offensives to take Kiev are just fantasy for now.

What indication is there of any Russian advance...until it happens. Massing of troops is too risky, they tend to attack in smaller fromations then build strength from different directions once a line of contact is established.

Not announcing their intentions months in advance has been one of the reasons for the success of the Russian operations.

Liberating Zaporozhye and moving into Dnepropetrovsk would allow Russia to capture the rest of Kherson, create a buffer zone between the NATO-led Nazis and the Nuclear Power Plant they keep attacking and establish a much needed land corridor to Odessa and Pridnestrovie.

And would also deny them a lot of people they could conscript to throw at the Russian forces later.

actions have consequences...sounds good if you ask me

Western intel wants the world to think the Russians are evil and are helping the terrorists trying to destroy israel.

Of course with the pagers and cellphones and walkietalkies, we know who the real terrorists are now.

It has been to my notice lately that some Western sources circulate the idea of negotiating dragging Ukraine to EU and even NATO in exchange for a truce and giving away the liberated areas.

Yes, they are getting desperate and revealing the truth... this was all about getting another customer for US MIC products in an expanded HATO... they don't care how many people the Ukraine has lost... they need weapons and ammo and military equipment for the next 20 years to replace what was used.

Even Zelensky has rejected this plan... the banderites would kill him to accept this deal... he has little choice.

A few Mirages to shoot down in exchange of half of Sahel seems a fair deal to me

I am sure they all sat down and carefully thought through what Kiev really needs, and what they need is a different aircraft from anything they have ever operated and as different from an F-16 as you could manage, but don't send them till next year when it wont matter anyway...

Russian MoD reporting 2195 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours including;

During the day, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to more than 200 servicemen, three armored combat vehicles were destroyed, as well as four artillery pieces, two mortars and three cars.

In total, during the fighting in the Kursk direction, the enemy lost more than 21250 servicemen, 136 tanks, 66 infantry fighting vehicles, 98 armored personnel carriers, 891 armored combat vehicles, 589 vehicles, 177 artillery pieces, 33 multiple rocket launchers, including eight HIMARS and six MLRS manufactured by the United States, nine anti-aircraft launchers missile systems, five transport-loading vehicles, 45 electronic warfare stations, nine counter-battery radars, three air defense radars, 22 units of engineering and other equipment, of which 13 engineering barrier vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearance unit, as well as three armored recovery vehicles.

https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12532148@egNews

Macron decided to risk the reputation of "Mirage" in Ukraine, by Valeria Verbinina, Anastasia Kulikova, for VZGLYAD. 10.08.2024.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces' air fleet is expected to be replenished: France intends to transfer Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine. Paris is increasingly declaring itself as the main "hawk" among the allies of Zelensky's office. However, its efforts are questionable - the transfer of the Mirages will not help resolve the political crisis in France, will not strengthen Ukraine on the battlefield, will not gain approval from the United States, but may harm the reputation of French fighters.

France is preparing  to transfer Mirage 2000-5 fighters to Ukraine. This was announced by the country's Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu in an interview with Sud Ouest . According to him, the aircraft could be used as early as the first semester of 2025. The aircraft are currently being re-equipped at the Cazaux military base in the province of Gironde.

"It is planned to provide them with air-to-ground combat capabilities. Their electronic warfare system (EW) will also have to be strengthened. But the most important thing is the training of pilots and mechanics, which continues in Nancy," he said. However, the exact number of aircraft that France is preparing to transfer to Ukraine is kept secret.

Back in June, when Emmanuel Macron announced this “gesture of goodwill,” the French newspaper Le Parisien wrote that the fighters “will help Kiev better protect its airspace, but will not be able to achieve a turning point on the front in favor of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.”

Let us recall that the Mirage 2000-5 is an export version of a fighter jet developed back in 1983. The aircraft's maximum speed can reach 1,210 km/h at low altitudes and 2,340 km/h at high altitudes, and the radars installed on board are capable of detecting targets at a distance of up to 130 km.

Lecornu's statement about the imminent dispatch of fighter jets to Ukraine fits into France's general policy of increasing escalation with Russia. Recall that back in February, Macron said that NATO countries allegedly discussed the possibility of sending ground troops to the conflict zone to support Ukraine.

Despite the fact that the French leader's words caused a wave of indignation in Europe and contradicted the opinion of the alliance's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in May, in an interview with The Economist , he again did not rule out the possibility of sending a contingent to Ukraine, but explained that this would be possible if Zelensky's office itself asked for help.

In addition, Le Monde  reported that Emmanuel Macron wants to create a coalition in the EU to jointly send instructors to the combat zone. He also stated that training Ukrainian soldiers "on the sovereign territory of the country" will become more effective. In his opinion, such an action does not contribute to the escalation of the conflict.

Meanwhile, Politico learned of Paris's plans to take part in the Dacian Spring 2025 military exercises, which will take place in Romania in May. The event involves practicing readiness for the rapid transfer of troops to NATO's eastern flank. The designated enemy is Russia. According to French General Bertrand Toujouz, the exercises should become a "strategic signal." In this way, France intends to escalate relations with Russia not only in Ukraine, but in Southeastern Europe as a whole.

"Mirage 2000 is a fourth-generation fighter, just like the F-16. In fact, we are talking about one of the advanced aircraft in Europe," said Major General Vladimir Popov, an honored military pilot of Russia. According to him, in an air battle, the "Frenchman" can compete with the Russian MiG-29. The attack modification of the Mirage is significantly inferior to the Su-34, the source added.

"Our technology is more advanced. Some domestic 4++ generation fighters are close to the potential capabilities of fifth generation machines. Therefore, it will be difficult for French aircraft," the pilot said. However, Paris's goal is apparently to test its fighter in action.

Besides, Mirage 2000 won't be of much help to Ukraine, Popov continued. "Firstly, we are talking about a small batch of fighters. 70 or 100 units could still represent combat potential and a certain threat to Russia. But in smaller quantities they will not change anything on the battlefield," he noted.

Secondly, the Ukrainian side still has a chronic problem with retraining pilots. "This process takes a long time. It is necessary to master takeoff and landing, even simple piloting: turns, hill climbs, transfer, dive," the interlocutor adds.

"In addition, at least three or four flights will be required to use each type of weapon: we are talking about both simple and guided bombs. If this is not done, the pilot will fly, but will launch these missiles into the white light as if they cost a pretty penny," the expert emphasized ironically.

Against this background, he does not rule out that mercenaries or Western instructors could fly the fighters. A separate issue is the training of engineers and technical personnel who will service this aircraft. According to Popov's estimates, this will take about six months. "At the same time, I think that at first they will continue to work under the supervision of French specialists," the expert believes.

Thirdly, Kyiv will have to think about the infrastructure for the Mirage 2000. "The Ukrainian aircraft fleet today is a 'hodgepodge'. Western fighters should be respected - they can really 'snap back', but only in serious hands and under certain conditions.

If you give good equipment to untrained specialists, it will just be a pile of scrap metal.

"In the case of the Ukrainian side, this is true: they have a time deficit, problems with personnel and no ability to organize the basing of aircraft. In other words, the transfer of Mirage creates more problems for Kyiv than benefits," Popov believes.

According to the expert's forecasts, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will use the "Frenchmen" to strengthen air defense. However, in the case of the F-16, such an attempt resulted in "friendly fire" and the loss of the fighter. Popov also doubts that the enemy will dare to seriously approach the line of combat contact, where our Su-30SM and Su-35S may be waiting for them.

Since the Mirage 2000 is a multi-role aircraft, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can use it for both defense and attack, believes Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry. "There are plenty of opportunities for its use. Most likely, at the first stage, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will use it to intercept Russian weapons," he believes.

"In the future, Ukraine may try to switch the aircraft to attack operations. Missiles such as SCALP and Storm Shadow can be launched from the fighter. However, such a development is unlikely, because in this case the aircraft would have to enter the Russian air defense zone," he says.

"This significantly increases the risks for the aircraft, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still trying to protect the fighters transferred to them. For example, the enemy is vigorously guarding the same F-16s, not trying to carry out particularly daring maneuvers with their help.

Western technology is not only about military potential. It is also about the reputation of the country that has transferred the device.

The crash of each aircraft raises questions among potential buyers, which affects the desire of the same US or EU countries to continue deliveries. Therefore, Ukrainians will also be extremely wary of the French Mirage 2000,” the expert believes.

"Moreover, Paris is unlikely to transfer a significant number of fighters to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There is still no precise data - even European publications are spreading only rumors. However, I do not think that they will be given more than 20 aircraft. This is a complex machine that requires highly qualified specialists for maintenance," he believes.

"I do not rule out that French engineers will be involved in the repair work, since Macron has repeatedly stated his readiness to send specialized specialists and instructors to the combat zone. However, the Mirage 2000 will not bring significant changes to the situation at the front. This requires a larger number of aircraft than Paris can actually transfer to Ukraine," Kozyulin notes.

In turn, Senator Andrey Klimov notes: the news of Paris's intention to transfer fighter jets to Ukraine appeared against the backdrop of a difficult domestic political situation in France. "There are plenty of problems there: the president appointed a man as prime minister whom no one in the opposition wants to know, the left-wing bloc in parliament has put forward a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier.

Macron himself is somehow balancing to avoid becoming a decorative figure.

Instead of settling the situation in France itself, Paris is once again focusing on helping Ukraine. Militarism in continental Europe, alas, is not abating," Klimov noted.

The senator did not rule out that the French authorities are trying to please Washington in this way. "However, the US is unlikely to like the fact that France intends to transfer only a few fighters to Kyiv. This is not what the White House is waiting for. The US wants the Europeans to invest in Ukraine to the fullest," the interlocutor believes. He emphasized that the appearance of several aircraft "will not make any difference." "Moreover, I am sure that our General Staff is monitoring the actual situation through its channels," Klimov concluded.

https://vz.ru/world/2024/10/8/1291339.html

Russian military is taking Kurakhovka and Selidovo in pincers, the DPR said, 10.08.2024.

Kimakovsky: Russian Armed Forces are taking Kurakhovka and Selidovo in the DPR in pincers.

MOSCOW, 8 Oct — RIA Novosti. Russian troops are taking Kurakhovka and Selidovo in a pincer movement, said adviser to the head of the DPR Igor Kimakovsky on Channel One.

"There is movement from the south <...> and to the west, north of Ugledar . <...> The enemy is already leaving Kurakhovka, because there are pincers, pincers around Selidovo," he said.

Selidovo is a city on the Selidovo-Novogrodovka-Grodovka line. Beyond it, the Russian military has access to Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), one of the largest and most strategically important settlements for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the west of the DPR. In addition, the army will be able to conduct an offensive in the rear of the Kurakhovo group of Ukrainian troops.

At the end of September, Kimakovsky reported that Russian Armed Forces units had approached Selidovo from three sides. They are now trying to take control of all roads leading to the city.

As for Krasnoarmeysk, according to the official, the Ukrainian defence there is cracking, and Russian military personnel are already several kilometers away from this settlement.

https://ria.ru/20241008/dnr-1977028812.html

We need to expose the enemy's lies every day, by Andrey Perla, political scientist, for VZGLYAD. 10.08.2024.

Russia shoots down enemy drones and missiles with air defense. But where are the troops who will shoot down the populist statements of new revolutionaries as they fly? It is necessary to constantly identify the communication channels that the enemy uses to reach various layers of society.

In no case should we ignore, it is absolutely necessary to read political emigrants, fugitives from Russia, foreign agents. In their emigrant media, they write not for you and me, but mainly for each other, that is, for themselves - and that is why they often do not speak, but let it slip.

Instead of hiding the unsightly truth about themselves and their plans, they discuss these very plans in detail - there is nothing to be ashamed of among their own. They probably assume that the simpletons who remain in Russia are not capable of comprehending the twists and turns of emigrant thought, and that they can calmly discuss how exactly they intend to deceive the people, and after discussing them, begin to implement the plans, using other media created exclusively for agitation and propaganda.

The approach is not only cynical, but has already proven its effectiveness a couple of times in history. And recently, a patented (one of those who, as they say, are beyond reproach) foreign agent, Doctor of Economics Vladislav Inozemtsev* came up with an extraordinary proposal. In his opinion, emigrants should refuse to perceive themselves as oppositionists who act within the framework of Russian politics. Instead, they should agree that they are now revolutionaries who seek to destroy the existing Russian state. And work in this direction.

Inozemtsev believes that anti-state political emigration should literally bring down a tsunami of populist promises on Russia.

In an article in The Moscow Times**, he suggests tempting the masses of the population in Russia with promises of a complete abolition of all taxes on individuals, as well as the possibility of separating all national-state entities from the Russian Federation. He also suggests inciting hatred towards all state security agencies and their employees.

This is not a delusion of hatred. It is a well-thought-out and very dangerous plan.

Inozemtsev knows history well. He remembers that even the excellent German army of the First World War failed to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Russia was not destroyed by the "long Bertha" (the equivalent of which, according to the foreign agent, is the ATACMS missile). No, the Russian army needed to be decomposed, and for that - revolutionary agitation. The soldier masses were then turned against the officers. They managed to take advantage of the fact that people did not understand why a difficult and long war was being waged. They managed to take advantage of the workers' dissatisfaction with their situation and the population's mistrust of the police. The decomposition of the army and the rear meant the possibility of seizing power - which came true.

This is exactly what is being openly offered to emigrants today: to seize power through a coup, and to prepare the coup by decomposing society and the army. "Decomposing the army" is not even a value judgment. It is simply a term that the enemy uses in his publications.

Let me emphasize once again. The plans in question are not intended for us to discuss. They are published for our own people. It is difficult for the enemy to imagine that we will get acquainted with these plans and understand them – snobbery gets in the way. That is why we can see him with his plans without embellishment, as is.

And it's not funny, as many people think.

Russia has at least twice in its history faced a destructive coup, carefully prepared abroad and carried out by means of the consistent decomposition of many layers of society by deliberate, absolutely false populist agitation. In 1917, this enemy strategy worked during the world war, against the backdrop of the hardships it caused. In 1985-1991 – during the Cold War, again against the backdrop of objective economic problems and the uncertain, erroneous actions of the authorities.

Both times, the successful revolution resulted in a catastrophe of monstrous proportions. Both times, the revolutionaries, agents of the West, the authors of this catastrophe, pretended to act for the good of the people. And both times, the people, seemingly inspired by patriotism, found themselves almost completely defenseless in the face of hostile propaganda. They did not recognize the lie. They did not understand that the promises of a better life and greater justice turned into devastation and nothing else – they did not understand until it was too late.

Russia today is involved in a war with the united West, the SVO is only an episode. And, as in previous great wars, we see that the "long Berthas" and "large battalions" cannot defeat Russia and destroy it. But the enemy does not count on them.

He sees another real chance for success. This chance is revolutionary agitation. This agitation is a more dangerous weapon than tanks and missiles, than economic sanctions and than sabotage of pipelines. Because agitation appeals to the most primitive social instincts and because it is based on absolute lies, and therefore does not need rational justification.

Counteracting this agitation today is perhaps a more important task than even recruiting volunteers for the active army and supplying the LBS units with everything they need. Exposing the enemy's lies, identifying the communication channels the enemy uses to reach various layers of society is necessary every day. And all this must be done simply and understandably for every person. Everyone in Russia must understand: a political emigrant revolutionary is a conscious and consistent enemy of Russia and every citizen of Russia.

* Recognized as a foreign agent

** Recognized as an undesirable organization in Russia

https://vz.ru/opinions/2024/10/8/1290326.html

flamming_python wrote:
....
Once you capture Kiev much of the rest of the Ukraine might collapse into Russia's hands by default.
Allowing the nerve centre to operate while you go after secondary objectives doesn't make much sense.
Yes it would be a demanding operation approaching it, but I'm talking about advancing to it first and foremost, not yet storming it.

Ukraine won't collapse just because they lose Kiev

Plus Russians already tried to get Kiev before and got slaughtered and castrated for their trouble

Coastline is the most valuable part of Ukraine, everything else is waste of space

Get the good stuff locked in first, leave the junk for later when it's depopulated

JohninMK wrote:

https://x.com/i/status/1843556452239098333

Unedited footage of Russian airstrike, absolutely rare find

A few Mirages to shoot down in exchange of half of Sahel seems a fair deal to me

If they send some Mirages, the French will lose the rest of Sahel.

The number of FAB bombs has significantly increased.

Looks as if the first one hitting the building to the left traveled right through it before exploding.

Russian MoD reporting 2195 Ukrainian casualties over the past 24 hours

Back to 2000+ baby!

They'll lose the rest of the French colonies worldwide.

Russian military advances into Toretsk centre , 10.08.2024.

Adviser to the Head of the DPR Kimakovsky: Russian Armed Forces are advancing into the centre of Toretsk.

MOSCOW, 8 Oct — RIA Novosti. Russian troops are advancing into the centre of Toretsk, effectively occupying the entire multi-storey buildings, said adviser to the head of the DPR Kimakovsky on the air of the Russia 24 TV channel.

"Our guys are moving in several directions at once. The first is from the Severnaya mine along the railway, this is for the northern coverage of the city. From this same mine the guys moved to the city centre, capturing virtually all the multi-storey buildings," he said.

In August, units of the "Centre" group liberated the village of Novgorodskoye , one of the largest settlements in the Toretsk agglomeration and a strategically important logistics hub. After this, Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces found themselves in a difficult situation in this area.

Toretsk (in 2016, the Ukrainian authorities renamed Dzerzhinsk) is a powerful fortified area with a developed railway network, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been entrenched since 2014. It is from here that Gorlovka, one of the largest cities in the DPR, is regularly shelled.

Taking this settlement will facilitate the supply of Russian troops along the Donetsk-Gorlovka- Artemovsk road section , and will also allow the enemy group in Kleshcheyevka to be threatened from behind. In addition, from here it will be possible to develop an offensive to the northwest - towards Konstantinovka.

https://ria.ru/20241008/sovetnikkimakovskiy-1977063924.html

PapaDragon wrote:Ukraine won't collapse just because they lose Kiev

Plus Russians already tried to get Kiev before and got slaughtered and castrated for their trouble

Coastline is the most valuable part of Ukraine, everything else is waste of space

Get the good stuff locked in first, leave the junk for later when it's depopulated

Russia didn't try to get Kiev before. It was just part of a 'cunning plan' drawn up by either our military heads or our political strategists that ended with a withdrawal, an abandoned peace negotiation process, an upsurge to Ukrainian morale over a phantom victory, and being accused of a massacre in Bucha for our trouble.

Anyway what it really boils down to is whether you think the war can end before Kiev is taken, or not.

If it can end, then yes taking some Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa or whatever has some logic to it as then the Ukraine and West can be presented with a fait accompli once Russian forces have dug in along the Dnepr and taken over the Ukrainian coastline. Of course this is still a bigger ask than capturing Kiev.

But if you like me believe that the pocket fuhrer in Kiev and whoever the West will replace him with will keep the war going no matter what - then waiting to capture Kiev later as opposed to going for it now doesn't make sense.

PapaDragon wrote:
Plus Russians already tried to get Kiev before and got slaughtered and castrated for their trouble

They never did, and you are repeating dumb statements of Milley like a woodpecker.
They have isolated Kiev, spread panic, and stayed where they wanted until recalled back as a part of the Istambul peace protocols goodwill gesture.
Probably it is your golden fish standard memory that fails, and you already forgot a civil war that started inside when thugs were given weapons and shot anything that moved.
Starting with families and children, and ending up with military columns of the Ukro army and it's vehicles.

As the guys already said, Kiev is relevant only as part of Moscow's humiliation plan toward the west.
Honestly, considering how practical they have been for the last 2.5 years, I highly doubt it.
There are two scenarios only, one making 404 a landlocked shithole, while the other is occupying the whole of it.
The second is as much needed as a second hole in your arse. They would "control" a territory that is clearly hostile and has no other record than mastering turmoils for a whole existence of the Soviet state.
Landlock them, dismantle the NPPs left, blow up hydro PPs and dams, and build a 4m high wall along an entire perimeter.
With a watch towers where one can watch - after humble ticketing - how a cannibalism looks in real.

Hole wrote:
Looks as if the first one hitting the building to the left traveled right through it before exploding.

It lew above it - check it in slow motion, you will see the bomb "point" on the roof background. Just fell aside the building. As in several cases, we can see a GPS standard deviation in all dimensions. A few meters in height means flying above the target od hitting the ground before reaching it. That is why it is a caliber that matters A FAB gives a shit if fell into of 10m away

LMFS wrote:
When time will allow to look at things in perspective, it will be clear that the first thing Russia tried, against all odds and even after starting military actions (and I would add, at a very high cost in terms of casualties), was to reach a negotiated settlement that would minimize the impact of the war, only for 404 to reject it, under control of the West. Apart from the fact that the remote success possibility already made the attempt worth it, this is what creating a legal case means and now all its key elements are available and richly documented. Since the very beginning of the last phase of conflict with Russia in the Maidan at least, Russia can demonstrate that it was the West that pursued a policy of confrontation, while Russia was forced up the escalatory ladder at every step and was left with no other option than taking military action, or even finishing Ukraine off. Someone is probably thinking already in what happens after the West stops controlling the world's propaganda and international organizations and what kind of settlements will be done at that time...

I will just remind you the assisting realies.
In 2018, a "Kerch Strait Incident" appeared, when Russkki coastal guard captured three Ukro mosquitos tasked to stage a provocation.
End of 2019 a Paris Meeting was held, with Merkel and Macron - proving to be just a waste of time.
It was since 2020, when a clear increase of the hostilities started at Donbas.
The number of incidents and bombings increased steadily.
Ukrowehrmacht was bluffing twice to attack - and chickened twice.
The first one was when Russkie carried Zapad 2021, and located a 100k contingent in Belarus.
The second one was when CSTO has landed in Kazakhstan in Jan 2022, finishing western sponsored unrests.
Now Russkie knew perfectly well, that there will be a third attempt, because the western curators demanded to effect the tons of military assistance they had been providing for years.
Putin decided not to wait for a 3rd attempt, as easy as that.
After sizing of Mariopol and Azov nest, all things get clear. An operation of attacking Donbas was already at a full swing. And considering the Ukro tactics of cannon fodder, it is clear to me that they would have overwhelmed the republican forces, pushing Russia to intervene anyway.
But on a different theatre and rules.