Russian special military operation in Ukraine #6

Arkanghelsk wrote:

flamming_python wrote:

ludovicense wrote:Russia doesn't want the Syrian scenario or a new Grosny. It would be politically prohibitive. Ukraine is a huge country with equally large conventional forces.... it wouldn't be overnight that this operation would be completed... if Russian intelligence or anyone else thought that, they were wrong....

I have a feeling both sides are just trying to increase their negotiating positions

What I see the ultimate solution as:

Military neutrality
Possibly an agreement with both the EU and EEU on trade preferences
DNR/LNR entering the Ukraine as republics with autonomy and own police forces
Mostly demilitarized Ukraine, albeit still with a standing army, which will have some battalions based on the DNR/LNR forces as well integrated in
Nazis still present but keep their head down more
Creation of the Trans-Carpathian republic out of the current Trans-Carpathian region, with Hungarian and Rusyn as extra official languages there, and some autonomy (not as much as DNR/LNR)
Military access rights for Russia to Pridnestrovie/Moldova
Russian compensation for all destroyed infrastructure, housing in the Ukraine and families of dead soldiers, civilians
Russian reconstruction of destroyed military-industrial enterprises, which can then fulfill orders for the Russian military as well
Amnesty for all political and military prisoners since 2014. Russia and the DNR/LNR releasing anyone they hold as well.
If all goes well then an eventual referendum on the Crimean republic rejoining the Ukraine (minus Sevastopol), provided that Russia has a scope-less limit on military infrastructure there and for free, to ensure its own security interests

it's like reading a Dozhd or Meduza article

Lmfao

No really, just an acknowledgement that both sides have to sit down and agree on something mutually beneficial. Such a Ukrainian state as I described will completely fit in with Russian interests.

interesting video..

Why Russia is INCAPABLE of Air Superiority in Ukraine



looks pretty balanced , and informative . explain russian problems.

Vann7 wrote:
interesting video..

Why Russia is INCAPABLE of Air Superiority in Ukraine



looks pretty balanced , and informative . explain russian problems.

Russian aircraft do plenty of sorties over the Ukraine. They don't tend to go too far though, never know when a hidden mobile anti-air system will light them up

NATO radars are tracking all their trajectories and provide advanced warning to any Ukrainian units

lancelot wrote:With regards to a Ukrainian nuclear program. Zelensky, and other Ukrainian politicians before him, blurbed it out more than once.
Putin is correct that you cannot ignore something like that. North Korea had less capability than Ukraine and they were able to make a program.

Ukraine has Yuzhmash who has the military technical capabilities to make a liquid fueled ICBM if they wanted to. And Ukraine also had the Grom missile program which is basically an Iskander clone. That would have enough range to hit Moscow from their territory.

The Ukrainians also have some of the largest uranium deposits in Europe. They have active uranium mines. They also had a deal with Westinghouse to make uranium fuel rods in Ukraine for their nuclear reactors. All that is left would be to separate plutonium and make a nuclear warhead. And their nuclear engineers are capable enough to do this.

Yep, and keep in mind that the west has endlessly flogged the fetish of an alleged Iranian weapons program (which doesn't exist due to the binding fatwa against nukes) yet turns a blind eye to a far-right nationalist controlled state in Europe (that positively oozes with racial hatred) that has an established nuclear industry together with a missile development & manufacturing complex with past laurels such as the RS-36 Voevoda world-killer...

Can the West possibly be anymore hypocritical and corrupt?????

Russia definitely has air superiority over Ukraine air space.
At best you might claim they don't have air supremacy, a different thing, but if they don't they are quite close to it.

The US bombed Serbia for like three months and they never managed to knock out their whole air defenses.
The Serbs had much more obsolete and much less equipment. Much less territory to hide in.
The US used way more aircraft than Russia is using in this campaign.

How are the Russians supposed to detect air defenses hidden inside buildings? Which only pop out to attack once an aircraft is around based on data fed from US airborne radar flying outside the Ukrainian border?

Arkanghelsk wrote:Yo flaming you are smoking some good shit

Wait until Auslander resident in Crimea wakes up to this shit

So you're saying , that Crimea will hold a referendum to rejoin Ukraine???

It is a total mental breakdown

In 15 years or so, if the Ukraine does what I think it should do and become a normal country

Then yeah why not hold a referendum. If it fails then it fails.

LMFS wrote:[

Your ideological similarities and focus on concealed anti-Russian propaganda are clear to all of us, but thanks for reminding it.

Haha. You are either mixing me with someone else or you are reading people bad. I am not communist, I did start to sympathize with socialism lately due to current events and poor people suffering needlessly during so-called pandemic, but I don't have ideology per se, it would be all over the place if I would be asked to define it. Also, I am half-russian myself with cultural and family ties to Russia, even my religion is orthodox (starover) and I live in a catholic country. And I am proud of my heritage, many times I've stated that. You have to be paranoid to think that I care about spreading propaganda, do you think that middle-aged **** doesn't have anything better to do? I enjoy being on this forum because of vast military knowledge people here have and some comedic moments from one of our funniest residents.

Ukrainians with a brain and a bit of integrity know it is necessary to go through this to get their country rid of the nazis and the puppet regime that had taken them hostage, sunk them in poverty and planed to get them all killed in the end. Standing is harder than being on your knees, but it also takes you much further.

Not possible in the modern world of Soy. People of today are sedentary and spoiled and very gullible. They keep voting for jewish oligarchs all the time, there must be something in the water?

To explain why Ukrainians have antiwar sentiment is quite easy, there is no way in hell they can support Russia here. They can be neutral at most and see what will happen next. Don't forget about these factors below:

Wartime propaganda
Rallying under the flag sentiment
Forced conscription
War brings destruction of cities, death, and misery (surprise, people die in war, artillery shells land on buildings, aggressor is always blamed)
Unsolicited regime change
Uncertainty
Destruction of the fabric of life, refugees and etc.

All integrity goes through the window when they shit themselves in the basement when their cities echo with explosions and etc.

Anatoly Shariy, pro-Russian Ukrainian blogger that I was following from 2014 has good streams where he organizes humanitarian help for people in need. He said that the Ukrainian or Russian army is not so scary... When they are not close to you. But shit hits the fan when fighting beings. I think it sums up the sentiment of what people think of war.

Arkanghelsk wrote:Who's interests??? Dude what I realized is that many people are experiencing a panic

Because the world has in fact changed,  forever

Most western observers are pining for there to be a chance Russia goes back on what it did not start, but most certainly is finishing

The end of relations with the West,

There are 0 concessions to be made

The sooner you process that we are not going back to pre February 24 2022, the sooner you will understand the world you are now living in

Oh I agree, but the process has already started, and Russia doesn't care about Western threats any more

However the war should be ended as quickly as possible and on mutually beneficial arrangements. Because a continuation of the war does not serve Russia

In my list I forgot to put the condition, that Russia will help rebuild the Ukraine and provide compensation, provided the West lifts its sanctions subsequently especially on the foreign reserves. That's on the West.

And with the Ukraine issue resolved and the country no longer part of NATO unofficially, Russia and China can move on to knocking Western plans around elsewhere

lancelot wrote:Russia definitely has air superiority over Ukraine air space.
At best you might claim they don't have air supremacy, a different thing, but if they don't they are quite close to it.

The US bombed Serbia for like three months and they never managed to knock out their whole air defenses.
The Serbs had much more obsolete and much less equipment. Much less territory to hide in.
The US used way more aircraft than Russia is using in this campaign.

How are the Russians supposed to detect air defenses hidden inside buildings? Which only pop out to attack once an aircraft is around based on data fed from US airborne radar flying outside the Ukrainian border?

NATO aircraft also operated at 10,000 feet with max jammers and engaged mostly in high altitude bombing attacks, thereby avoiding the primary danger zone.  Russia on the other hand is running sorties at low level for CAS and hunting down mobile AD assets.  Given the preponderance of Soviet-era AD assets in Ukrop forces and the presence of modern-day NATO-supplied manpads I'm quite impressed that they have kept their losses so low.  FFS, they have apparently taken out 20K orcs plus more armour than the French & Brit armies combined and only lost a handful of fixed-wings and helos. Western sources are just pissy and butthurt that Russia is achieveing what they never could.

flamming_python wrote:

Arkanghelsk wrote:Yo flaming you are smoking some good shit

Wait until Auslander resident in Crimea wakes up to this shit

So you're saying , that Crimea will hold a referendum to rejoin Ukraine???

It is a total mental breakdown

In 15 years or so, if the Ukraine does what I think it should do and become a normal country

Then yeah why not hold a referendum. If it fails then it fails.

They already did, twice.

So how many referendums you want? 1 for each year? Decade? Century?

Or until you get what you want?

Please, stop and use logic

Hard times make strong people.  --> Russia is here

Strong people make good times.  

Good times make weak people.

Weak people make hard times.  --> US and Europe is here



Pretty fcking self-explanatory, don'cha think?  

I think they need to add MAWS to more aircraft. All the aircraft the Ukrainians knocked down don't have MAWS I think.
The Su-34M also needs to improve its sensors and avionics to ensure standoff attacks against high value targets like air defense batteries will be more effective.
For this they will also need to make cheaper precision weapons than currently available.

Then again, against NATO, none of this would be happening. They have next to zero proper air defenses.
It would only be necessary against a country like Israel, whose air defenses are really heavy.

lancelot wrote:I think they need to add MAWS to more aircraft. All the aircraft the Ukrainians knocked down don't have MAWS I think.
The Su-34M also needs to improve its sensors and avionics to ensure standoff attacks against high value targets like air defense batteries will be more effective.
For this they will also need to make cheaper precision weapons than currently available.

Then again, against NATO, none of this would be happening. They have next to zero proper air defenses.
It would only be necessary against a country like Israel, whose air defenses are really heavy.

What?

Su-34 already has all of that. Heck, Su-24 does too. Su-34 already has a far better structure than Gefast & T upgrade to Su-24 in that it can calculate with high precision when to drop an unguided bomb. Maybe not MAWS until later makes, but it has everything to pick up enemy radar and or comms.

Why else do you think it replaced Su-24?

No chance of Crimeans joining Ukraine. Most of them are ethnic Russians, they have better economic conditions in Russia, social guarantees, and basically, they do support Russian integration. Crimea was never derussified and they wouldn't even join Ukraine if somehow it was richer than Russia. Crimea is not Odesa or Mariupol.

Oh, not to mention people don't like Ukrainians there, it's like Ukraine did all the things to lose hearts and minds by blocking water, electricity, and their crazy nationalist rhetoric.
If Crimeans would join Ukraine, I would be very disappointed, it would be like an abused wife going back to her husband.

What look to be MLRS strikes in Kharkov.

miketheterrible wrote:


What?

Su-34 already has all of that. Heck, Su-24 does too.  Su-34 already has a far better structure than Gefast & T upgrade to Su-24 in that it can calculate with high precision when to drop an unguided bomb.  Maybe not MAWS until later makes, but it has everything to pick up enemy radar and or comms.

Why else do you think it replaced Su-24?

Even Ka-52 has MAWS as seen in the airport video, I don't see how prime strike jet wouldn't, not sure where lancer got this impression.

By the way, what does Su-34 use for bomb guidance, I thought it was the same as Gefast SVP-24?

Regular wrote:

miketheterrible wrote:


What?

Su-34 already has all of that. Heck, Su-24 does too.  Su-34 already has a far better structure than Gefast & T upgrade to Su-24 in that it can calculate with high precision when to drop an unguided bomb.  Maybe not MAWS until later makes, but it has everything to pick up enemy radar and or comms.

Why else do you think it replaced Su-24?

Even Ka-52 has MAWS as seen in the airport video, I don't see how prime strike jet wouldn't, not sure where lancer got this impression.

By the way, what does Su-34 use for bomb guidance, I thought it was the same as Gefast SVP-24?

Gefast & T was a third party for older planes that proved awesome at its task. But the one on Su-34 was designed by NAPO and is apparently better but more expensive. How much better? Don't know. My guessing it is about the same performance but with integration that is seamless compared to Gefast & T which required additional avionics upgrades.

It is just that there were just too many flights where you saw Su-34 do low level passes striking targets with dumb bombs.
They should not need to do something like that. Also kind of dangerous since the Ukr still have anti-air assets.

Arkanghelsk wrote:

limb wrote:How similar are russian tank tactics in this war compared to syrian tank tactics and tactics during the 1st chechen war?


Is there any info on how much approval of russia there still is in areas like nikolaev, denpropetrovsk and zaporozhye? One of the major propaganda talking points is that the people fighting russia in ukraine are local russian speakers, not west ukrainians.

I would hope there is a socialist govenrment that takes power in eastern ukraine with the help of Russia. The proletariat there has been suffering from the evils of the neoliberal junta there for far too long from things such as private ownership of industry, wage stagnation, hypercompetitive job market, privatized energy distribution, murder of socialists. As such, socialists in ukraine are probably the only political fac tions who aren't rabidly pro-western and russophobic.  Hopefully ukraine's major industrial and agricultural assets like nikolaev, kremenchug become collectivized by their employees, and the proletariat in the area can fight off any neoliberal russophobic rebellion.

Dude you should just grab a subscription to the New York times to read information which is similar to the useless trash you post

You would really like it, it really suits your lack of reading and comprehension skills

Wow, the internet warrior has engaged with ad hominems. I don't follow NYT because it is neoliberal.

Whats wrong with what I said? The simple fact is that the vast majority of ukrainians who arent russophobic are likely to be communists or anticapitalists of some kind, since ukrainain russophobia is indistinguishable from anticommunism and of course, ukrainian wage workers suffer the most from neoliberal policies. Lets not forget that it was the coal miner proletariat that initially took up arms against the maidan junta. If an ukrainain is capitalist, chances are that they support western global hegemony and are inherently russophobic due to belieiving that 7 billion ukrainos got starved in muh holodomorino.

Hence it would be only fair to reward pro-russian communist and socialist ukrainians with collectivization and lack of any private property ownership.
Ukraine needs dekulakization, not decommunization. Because of decommunization in the 90s, most ukrainians believe that russia is the great satan because of muh holodomor.

lancelot wrote:It is just that there were just too many flights where you saw Su-34 do low level passes striking targets with dumb bombs.
They should not need to do something like that. Also kind of dangerous since the Ukr still have anti-air assets.

It was to reduce civilian casualties and avoid long range high altitude SAMs that are rocking in civilian centers.

Dangerous tactic but is what was used in desert storm and Iraqi freedom to relative high degree of success as the KUBs and S-125's were biggest threat.

Except for they never faces OSA and Strela like Russia has to

I see the F16.net rejects spewing another 10 pages of anti-russophobic, western sewage propaganda for our viewing pleasure again. I swear, half the time i feel like a sanitation worker coming here with the traitorous bolshevik and western imperial rats running around Russiadefence.net's sewer pipes.

miketheterrible wrote:

lancelot wrote:It is just that there were just too many flights where you saw Su-34 do low level passes striking targets with dumb bombs.
They should not need to do something like that. Also kind of dangerous since the Ukr still have anti-air assets.

It was to reduce civilian casualties and avoid long range high altitude SAMs that are rocking in civilian centers.

Dangerous tactic but is what was used in desert storm and Iraqi freedom to relative high degree of success as the KUBs and S-125's were biggest threat.

Except for they never faces OSA and Strela like Russia has to

The thing is this dangerous tactic could be done with drones. Armed drones would make for much better affordable sacrificial pawns to target optically guided SAMs. They would be much better than expensive manned jets flying low and slow, and because they fly 200km/h they can see SHORADS more easily than a jet flying at 800km/h.
It would also give ukrainian SAM operators a dillema between shooting at the armed drone and exposing their locations to russian artillery and aircraft, or not shooting and hoping the drone doesnt destroy them itself. BUKs and Osas are also pretty tall and cant be hidden that well, which would make trhem detectable by high quality drone cameras. Strela-10s are a different story.

Having shittons of forposts and orions to be sacrificed is better than Su-34s flying low and slow.