Russian special military operation in Ukraine #59

NSFW dead bodies visible:

More photos of Nazi armored vehicles destroyed by Sevastopol marines on Kursk land.

https://t.me/lost_armour/3232?single

Makes you wonder if you are actually safer in a small agile Lada (Riva) than sitting on those slow, big, heavy vehicles that all have major weak spots; 4 rubber tires that when blown off basically neutralize it. A Lada might not even trigger the anti-tank mine

For those interested check izvestia news and rostec.ru for the army expo updates new EW body armour, new sapper armour, new machine guns, new armoured vehicles with tracks and lightness to make it easier to go through mud. Got too many things to do in a few days before a long break

famschopman wrote:What is holding back Russia to advance towards Odessa and reduce contraband delivered through the port and additionally remove any risk of attacks by sea drones? The Crimea Peninsula is 'relatively' close; to me it sounds Odessa should be like the 1st priority in terms of strategic and tactical importance.

If you take Odessa you will still have to take Kiev

Yet if you take Kiev you might not have to take Odessa. Maybe it will fall into your hands by default.

If there is no longer any possibility of negotiations with either the Ukraine or NATO, then taking Kiev is not only non-negotiable, but also anything other than Kiev is a waste of time. Even the rest of the Donbass is a lower priority. After Kiev, you see what else you have to mop up.

famschopman wrote:Makes you wonder if you are actually safer in a small agile Lada (Riva) than sitting on those slow, big, heavy vehicles that all have major weak spots; 4 rubber tires that when blown off basically neutralize it. A Lada might not even trigger the anti-tank mine  

You are, that is why the Russians are using motorcycles, and now with smoke screens.

Arrow wrote:

Capturing the capital does not always result in the capitulation of the country. In order to capture Kiev, Russia needs another 500k troops and equipment, which it does not have. Capturing Kiev is currently a fantasy. In Odessa, they could still defend themselves and NATO could continue to send equipment through Romania, etc.

It doesn't always no, but it's telling that the capital would be the highest priority of defense by the Maidan regime itself. And that's hardly for no reason. Of course it's the nerve center and seat of legitimacy of Bandera country.

Taking Kiev would be a gargantuan operation, and it no doubt will require months more of build-up. But it can be approached and threatened right now, now that the Ukrainians have thrown away their best men.

About 500k troops I have my doubts. But regardless of how many it takes, the war won't end before capturing it.
The Israelis have been battling over a similar size and population urban zone in Gaza with a lot less men then 500k, and have suffered relatively light casualties. Unlike the Israelis, Russia has the opportunity to organize humanitarian corridors for the population to exfiltrate before it starts pulverizing enemy entrenched in the city sector by sector.

sentinel112 wrote:

ludovicense wrote:


Which does not justify the grotesque failure of the Russian MoD.
Not seeing the movement is unjustified.

All intelligence thought that these were reserves for a counterattack on Volchansk in the Kharkiv region. It's just that no one imagined that they would throw trained reserves and scarce Western armor into a senseless attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant. The enemy was once again able to surprise the entire Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation with its stupidity. In that direction, a maximum of PR attacks for 100-300 people in the style of RDK were expected

I understand its not possible to predict what the cornered rat will do, but how hard is it to keep 10 SU-25 and 10 SU-34 and a a couple of Iskander units on alert and have drone recon. they are training all kinds of drone operators, why not train them with recon in the low intesity areas. If they could get targeting data, 10 SU-34s dropping cluster glide bombs woulda delivered gut punches to this assault.

mnztr wrote:I understand its not possible to predict what the cornered rat will do, but how hard is it to keep 10 SU-25  and 10 SU-34 and a a couple of Iskander units on alert and have drone recon. they are training all kinds of drone operators, why not train them with recon in the low intesity areas. If they could get targeting data, 10 SU-34s dropping cluster glide bombs woulda delivered gut punches to this assault.

Su-34s and other aircraft were in the air no sooner had the Ukrainians crossed the border. And they got some good hits in

But ultimately the issue is that the Ukrainians not only made a much-larger scale incursion than in the Belgorod case but also went about it smarter, with more camouflage and more dispersal.

sentinel112 wrote:All intelligence thought that these were reserves for a counterattack on Volchansk in the Kharkiv region. It's just that no one imagined that they would throw trained reserves and scarce Western armor into a senseless attack on the Kursk nuclear power plant. The enemy was once again able to surprise the entire Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation with its stupidity. In that direction, a maximum of PR attacks for 100-300 people in the style of RDK were expected

You aren't in Russian intelligence to be able to state what they did or didn't imagine.

The nature of the Russian response is entirely due to the type of defenses it has organized on the border, it prevents any surprise even if you didn't see anything ahead of time, and I see no evidence that Russian intelligence did not.

flamming_python wrote:

It doesn't always no, but it's telling that the capital would be the highest priority of defense by the Maidan regime itself. And that's hardly for no reason. Of course it's the nerve center and seat of legitimacy of Bandera country.

Taking Kiev would be a gargantuan operation, and it no doubt will require months more of build-up. But it can be approached and threatened right now, now that the Ukrainians have thrown away their best men.

An attack, or what looked as if it would be, on Kiev would likely cause a massive shift in UA rescources. Which would be very useful

flamming_python wrote:

Arrow wrote:

Capturing the capital does not always result in the capitulation of the country. In order to capture Kiev, Russia needs another 500k troops and equipment, which it does not have. Capturing Kiev is currently a fantasy. In Odessa, they could still defend themselves and NATO could continue to send equipment through Romania, etc.

It doesn't always no, but it's telling that the capital would be the highest priority of defense by the Maidan regime itself. And that's hardly for no reason. Of course it's the nerve center and seat of legitimacy of Bandera country.

Taking Kiev would be a gargantuan operation, and it no doubt will require months more of build-up. But it can be approached and threatened right now, now that the Ukrainians have thrown away their best men.

About 500k troops I have my doubts. But regardless of how many it takes, the war won't end before capturing it.
The Israelis have been battling over a similar size and population urban zone in Gaza with a lot less men then 500k, and have suffered relatively light casualties. Unlike the Israelis, Russia has the opportunity to organize humanitarian corridors for the population to exfiltrate before it starts pulverizing enemy entrenched in the city sector by sector.

I have advocated this since 2022

I think Russia will begin such operations, if not in Kiev then at least in the border , targeting the two population centers that allow Ukraine to logistically support its forces close to Kursk and Belgorod , that is Sumy and Kharkov

I’d say Chernigov is also a point of interest considering hohols can repeat this whole episode in Bryansk

So the main thing once Kursk is cleared - is to urgently begin this type of operation , razing Ukrainian population centers and exfiltrating civilians via humanitarian corridors in all 3 cities

This would create a sanitation zone along the border


Then you can think of Kiev and right bank

But you are right FP as am I, and have been since 2022 - you don’t need mobilization and 1 million more troops if you fight this thing how Israel does, maybe with a bit more conservatism and caution, but there’s only so much you can do to avoid collateral damage

And tbh Russian losses are purely because of the backwards bending over to avoid collateral damage - and in hindsight it just wasn’t worth it and I knew that since I saw the first losses in 2022

I knew that the lives of troops were not worth trading for Ukrainian civilians

And 2.5 years later with the casualties where they are and the situation as is

I think I am validated , and I think Putin and the general staff will validate me as well very soon or else they will face a general decline of popularity and support from society

Ukrainians are not fraternal, they can be after they’ve been defeated but not before

Kill em all - let God sort them out

Interesting part of this is that the road is then blocked in Ukraine, with no way through on either side due to anti tank defences, until a tank or similar gets there to push it out of the way. With the FPV operators lying in wait for it.

Desperation.

As for attacking Khuyiv, the point of the Donbass front is to grind down the Ukr army so diverting it to hide behind civilians does not make any sense.

Khuyiv will fall once the Banderite regime has no army and no irregulars to lean on.

Problem is, there is no short of Eurotrash and South Americans willing to die for a buck or two in Ukraine. Mercenaries are everywhere over there.

sepheronx wrote:Problem is, there is no short of Eurotrash and South Americans willing to die for a buck or two in Ukraine.  Mercenaries are everywhere over there.

If this was such a big deal, then we would have seen it already. Instead, we had an initial surge (which was small) which then nearly evapourated once the nature of the
warfare became clear to all the pro-NATzO mercenaries.

So let me see, the whole point of Zelitadel was to occupy Russian territory for negotiating purposes, seize Kursk NPP, lower civilian morale, ease up pressure on their positions in Donbass, and score a propaganda victory. The western corporate state controlled press called it a major achievement as they played up the Ukrainian seizure of 1000 square miles. Yeah, about that, Chicago metro area is 10,000 square miles. So put another way, Chicago's street gangs control more territory in that city and have controlled it for far longer than Ukraine holds Russian territory.

What has Ukraine achieved? Get bargaining chips for negotiations? Putin and Trump have both scrapped proposals for negotiations. Seize Kursk NPP? Much like Citadel, they're getting bogged down in Russia's border area. The only difference is that during Citadel the Russians had dug in and mined and set up kill zones and firebags for months, and in Zelitadel they have had to stop the Ukrainians while on the march. Lower morale? This is just the latest in a long line of cross border raids. Alleviate pressure on Donbass defenses? The meatgrinder keeps making bandera burgers. Now they did win on the propaganda front, but big whoop, when you have Hollywood and fifth avenue marketing agencies pumping billions into this war you are going to do well. Russia has never done well in agitprop even during Soviet times.

What has it cost? 10 to 12 thousand of your best trained troops, your best weapons tech, and you take it away from other areas you cannot afford to take them from and they get mauled and achieve nothing.

So bully for you Ukraine for a propaganda coup, but on the ground you achieve nothing, you get nothing good day sir.

Ukraine has defaulted – Fitch, 08.14.2024.

The country’s credit rating has been cut over failure to make a coupon payment on a 2026 Eurobond.

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ukraine’s credit rating to ‘restricted default’ on Tuesday, citing the expiry of a ten-day grace period for the coupon payment on the country’s $750 million 2026 Eurobond, which was due on August 1.

The US-based credit-rating agency said it has lowered the rating on the 2026 Eurobond to ‘D from ‘C’ and affirmed the other foreign-currency bonds at ‘C.’

The downgrade comes after Kiev passed a law permitting the suspension of foreign debt payments until October 1. On July 18, the Ukrainian parliament approved legislation that allows the government to temporarily suspend payments on state and state-guaranteed external commercial debt until a restructuring agreement with external commercial debt creditors is completed.

“This marks an event of default under Fitch’s criteria with respect to the sovereign’s IDR [Issuer Default Rating] as well as the individual issue rating of the affected security,” Fitch stated.

Rival US ratings agency S&P Global also cut Ukraine’s rating to ‘selective’ default on August 2.

Ukraine has been negotiating with creditors a restructuring of its nearly $20 billion in international debt. A preliminary deal with a committee of its main bondholders was achieved on July 22, two weeks before the grace period for coupon payment expired.

Kiev secured a preliminary deal to suspend debt repayments back in 2022 after the escalation of its conflict with Russia. The two-year payment moratorium on payments expired on August 1.

Fitch had earlier projected Ukraine’s state deficit to remain high, at 17.1% of the country’s GDP this year, noting that defense spending amounted to 31.3% of its annual economic output in 2023. The agency expects government debt to surge to 92.5% of GDP in 2024.

According to the Ukrainian Finance Ministry, the country’s public debt surged by more than $1 billion in June, with its total volume now exceeding $152 billion.

The International Monetary Fund in June revised downwards Ukraine’s gross domestic product forecast for this year to 2.5% from its April estimate of 3.2%, citing worsening sentiment among consumers and businesses over the course of the conflict with Russia.

https://www.rt.com/business/602619-ukraine-debt-default-fitch/

We may be missing a financially significant reason for the strike into Kursk, the gas monitoring station.

First, from the link posted below, what does the site do?

The Gas-Metering Station is a complicated technological complex. Its main function is to perform an uninterrupted and accurate measurement of the quantity and quality of natural gas flowing through these magisterial pipes.

I can see no reason why the Ukrainians would want or need the site to interrupt the movement of the gas (they could shut valves/turn off pumps themselves at home) and from any information available they haven't.

But there must be a reason why they have apparently demolished a couple of buildings on the site. The most logical to me is that they wanted to destroy Russia's ability to meter the volume of gas being pumped into Ukraine and hence charge for it. A very big problem for Gazprom.

I wonder if they have destroyed that function and at the moment the Ukrainians are attempting to suck as much gas as they can out of the Russian network, making a big profit on sales to the EU. This is after all an area that the Ukrainians have form in.

The ramifications are quite complex all the way to the end of the current contracts on 31/12/24. We know how Russia steadfastly honours its contracts so maybe a case for Force majeure and shut the pipeline.

https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2024/08/13/ukraine-war-day-902-did-ukraine-seize-russias-gas-meter-part-i/

kvs wrote:

sepheronx wrote:Problem is, there is no short of Eurotrash and South Americans willing to die for a buck or two in Ukraine.  Mercenaries are everywhere over there.

If this was such a big deal, then we would have seen it already.   Instead, we had an initial surge (which was small) which then nearly evapourated once the nature of the
warfare became clear to all the pro-NATzO mercenaries.  

Mercenaries have military background most of the time. They are not dumb and know Ukraine vs Russia isn't a bright future for ukrainians.

Since the first attack on a training base in the rears of Ukraine at the beggining with kalibrs, they know they can die no matter where they are in Ukraine.

You won't find that many of them. They have better contract in the middle east or Africa protecting some petro companies or as protection services.

Those going to ukraine are dumbass from Call Of Duty environment that confuse games with reality.

JohninMK wrote:I can see no reason why the Ukrainians would want or need the site to interrupt the movement of the gas (they could shut valves/turn off pumps themselves at home) and from any information available they haven't.

But there must be a reason why they have apparently demolished a couple of buildings on the site. The most logical to me is that they wanted to destroy Russia's ability to meter the volume of gas being pumped into Ukraine and hence charge for it. A very big problem for Gazprom.

I wonder if they have destroyed that function and at the moment the Ukrainians are attempting to suck as much gas as they can out of the Russian network, making a big profit on sales to the EU. This is after all an area that the Ukrainians have form in.

The ramifications are quite complex all the way to the end of the current contracts on 31/12/24. We know how Russia steadfastly honours its contracts so maybe a case for Force majeure and shut the pipeline.

The gas transit contract through Ukraine is supposed to expire this year. And it isn't expected that a new contract will be negotiated. At the same time Ukraine shut down one of the gas pipelines so the transit is already constricted to begin with.